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Paul Pabst

54.76%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

17.24

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

3

Graded calls

across 1 article. 4 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 3

Picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl 27-24 in overtime with Jalen Hurts as MVP.3 graded calls · Feb 7, 2025
- “twenty seven to twenty four Eagles in overtime”
  Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  50
  they picked:
  PHI
  season:
  2024
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  50
  champion:
  PHI
  runner up:
  KC
  naive pick:
  KC
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  0
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “I'm gonna give it to Jalen Hurt's twenty seven to twenty four Eagles in overtime.”
  Scored 64.29a naive guess scored 62.56+1.72 skill
  How this was scored
  score:
  22-40
  skill:
  1.72
  they picked:
  PHI
  season:
  2024
  accuracy:
  64.29
  baseline:
  62.56
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  actual margin:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  0
  naive home margin:
  2.28
  predicted margin:
  3
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “I'm gonna give it to Jalen Hurt's twenty seven to twenty four Eagles in overtime.”
  Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  award:
  mvp
  naive:
  the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
  skill:
  0
  player:
  Jalen Hurts
  season:
  2024
  winner:
  Josh Allen
  correct:
  false
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  0
  Think this grade is wrong?