Rich Eisen · Jun 23, 2025

Eisen defended the Chiefs (AFC West title, double-digit wins), predicted nearly all of last year's playoff teams return, backed Washington bouncing back, said Sam Darnold keeps his job, projected a 2,000-yard season for Puka Nacua, and forecast the Bengals back in the playoffs with the Steelers around 10-7.

“Sam Darnold is not getting benched in 2025.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

18 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Depth Chart Calls Michael Penix Jr.Atlanta FalconsJun 23, 2025
Michael Penix Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
“And Michael Penaics, obviously, is just he's gonna have his first ever week one start.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
ATL
skill:
16.67
player:
Michael Penix Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Philadelphia EaglesJun 23, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs
“I think the eagles make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Pittsburgh SteelersJun 23, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“And the Steelers, sir, as you know, book them for ten and seven. You know what I mean? Maybe eleven and six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
PIT
naive:
9.25
skill:
30
what happened:
10
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
85
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Kansas City ChiefsJun 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“The Chiefs make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Buffalo BillsJun 23, 2025
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“So I will say the Bills make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Houston TexansJun 23, 2025
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“The Texans make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
HOU
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Los Angeles ChargersJun 23, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“I think the chargers make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Tampa Bay BuccaneersJun 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“The Bucks make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Sam Darnold Seattle SeahawksJun 23, 2025
Sam Darnold to be 1st on the depth chart
“Sam Darnold is not getting benched in 2025.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
SEA
skill:
0
player:
Sam Darnold
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Baltimore RavensJun 23, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“The Ravens make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Detroit LionsJun 23, 2025
Detroit Lions to make the playoffs
“The Lions make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Los Angeles RamsJun 23, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“The rams make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAR
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Cincinnati BengalsJun 23, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“I think the Bengals are gonna make the playoffs this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Denver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“Denver could make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Kansas City ChiefsJun 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 10 wins
“Will they actually have double digit wins this year? That's more likely than not.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.75
skill:
40
what happened:
6
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Puka Nacua Los Angeles RamsJun 23, 2025
Puka Nacua to record 2,000 receiving yards
“I'll agree with you, and I'll give you one... I'm going Puka Nakua... You're down with the 2,000 yard wide receiver?”
Close · 72Scored 71.5a naive guess scored 0+143 skill
How this was scored
naive:
669.87
skill:
143
what happened:
1715
player:
Puka Nacua
season:
2025
accuracy:
71.5
baseline:
0
predicted:
2000
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
990
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
349.73
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Daniel Jones Indianapolis ColtsJun 23, 2025
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“if you're bubbling on the hot seat and Daniel Jones is your quarterback as it's gonna be for Shane Steichen in Indianapolis”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
IND
skill:
0
player:
Daniel Jones
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Kansas City ChiefsJun 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“Will they win the AFC West again this year? I think that's more likely than not.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?