Rich Eisen Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

Rich Eisen

Rich Eisen hosts The Rich Eisen Show, where he covers the NFL through power rankings, sleeper picks, and team previews. His predictions span game outcomes, playoff races, and player awards, with particular attention to quarterbacks like Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins, and running backs heading into the season.

Writes at Overreaction Monday (podcast)

Every take from Rich Eisen, including the ones still waiting →

Is Rich Eisen accurate? Across 465 graded calls in 127 articles, Rich Eisen scores 60.79% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 20.35, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is an established record: thirty or more graded articles.

60.79%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

20.35

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

465

Graded calls

across 127 articles. 309 more not yet settled.

97.08% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Playoff Picks77 graded61.75 accuracy
Game Outcome Picks67 graded65.48 accuracy
Mock Draft Picks58 graded83.71 accuracy

Against the grain

Teams and players where Rich Eisen keeps landing outside the room: at least twice, their call sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is their standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.

Green Bay Packers-10
Outside the room in 9 of 26 articles (1 higher, 8 lower) · when they strayed: 56.0 accuracy (9 settled)
Indianapolis Colts-15
Outside the room in 5 of 16 articles — always lower · when they strayed: 73.0 accuracy (5 settled)

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

Graded calls · 465

14 of 128 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 13.

In the 'What's More Likely' segment, Eisen picked the Texans over the Bills to be crowned the AFC front runner by Monday morning, indicating he expected Houston to win their meeting.Sep 11, 2026
- Houston Texans to beat Bills
  “Who's more likely to be crowned AFC front runner on Monday morning? Bills or Texans? ... I'll go Texans. I'll go Texans.”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  won:
  BUF
  score:
  36-31
  skill:
  0
  they picked:
  HOU
  season:
  2026
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0
  the naive pick:
  HOU
  difficulty:
  2

Eisen laid out his "come at me" mock draft of the top 10 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft, including a projected Chiefs trade up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese.9 graded calls · Apr 22, 2026

David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“I think the New York Jets, second overall, choose David Bailey out of Texas Tech.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95
Think this grade is wrong?
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 6
“I got him out of Utah going to the Browns here. I'm gonna take him at six.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 92.86 against a shuffle’s 50+42.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
42.86
player:
Spencer Fano
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
9
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
92.86
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 7
“I think Sonny Styles goes here to the Washington commanders.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
“And the number 10 overall... I think the Giants stick and pick here and take Caleb Downs”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 92.86 against a shuffle’s 50+42.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
42.86
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
10
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
92.86
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“And I believe it's the Kansas City Chiefs moving up from nine to take Arbel Reese here.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 92.86 against a shuffle’s 50+42.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
42.86
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
92.86
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“Number four, that leaves the Tennessee Titans... they take Jeremiah Love”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 92.86 against a shuffle’s 50+42.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
42.86
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
92.86
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“number one overall is okay. It's Fernando Mendez... So Fernando Mendoza's first overall.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 92.86 against a shuffle’s 50+42.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
42.86
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
92.86
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 8
“The Saints now will stick and pick at eight and take Jordan Tyson, the wide receiver out of Arizona State.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 92.86 against a shuffle’s 50+42.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
42.86
player:
Jordyn Tyson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
8
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
92.86
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
“So I'll I'll take Karnell Tate for the Giants here at five.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 92.86 against a shuffle’s 50+42.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
42.86
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
92.86

Eisen agreed four Ohio State players would go top-10, named several other prospects he expects in the top 10, predicted Jeremiah Love would not fall out of the top five, and said Arvel Reese would go no later than seventh. He called the tight-end and Ty Simpson takes overreactions.7 graded calls · Mar 2, 2026

Caleb Downs to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“And I don't think he's falling out of the top 10.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Francis Mauigoa to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“I think Mau and Noah, the left tackle of, of Miami goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Francis Mauigoa
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
David Bailey to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Bailey Bailey goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“I think, Yoane, the, the guard the interior guard of of the, Penn State Nittany Lions, I think he goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Olaivavega Ioane
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Mendoza goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
“I don't think Jeremiah loves getting out of the top five. How about that?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 7
“Arvel Reese looks like RoboCop. He's not falling out of the top five. If he does, the I I think the the commander's at seven. That is the lowest he's gonna go in this draft”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Arvel Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:

Eisen endorsed four Ohio State players going in the top 10 (with Arvel Reese no lower than seventh), listed Mendoza, Jeremiah Love, Miami's left tackle, Penn State's interior guard and Bailey as top-10 picks, said Love won't get out of the top five, and agreed Mendoza's rookie numbers would beat Brady's 2001 line and that Mike Evans will leave Tampa to chase a ring.9 graded calls · Mar 2, 2026

Arvell Reese to be picked “top five; at lowest No. 7” (picks 1–5)
“Arvel Reese looks like RoboCop. He's not falling out of the top five. If he does, I think the commander's at seven. That is the lowest he's gonna go in this draft”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top five; at lowest No. 7 (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
“I don't think Jeremiah loves getting out of the top five. How about that?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
David Bailey to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Bailey Bailey goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Carnell Tate to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“had had all four guys going in the top 10... It had Tate at ten... I don't think this is an overreaction.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Yoane, the, the guard the interior guard of of the, Penn State Nittany Lions, I think he goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Olaivavega Ioane
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Francis Mauigoa to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“I think Mau and Noah, the left tackle of, of Miami goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Francis Mauigoa
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Mendoza goes in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Then you look at Sonny Styles and all those mocks of him being twelfth overall... it's up in smoke.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Caleb Downs to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“And I don't think he's falling out of the top 10.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?