Kiper's first mock draft has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Arvell Reese second to the Jets, a third pick to Arizona, Carnell Tate fifth to the Giants, Jeremiah Love ninth to Kansas City, Caleb Downs 10th to Cincinnati, Sonny Styles to Dallas, and Ty Simpson at 16 to the Jets. He also says Dante Moore will be in the No. 1 pick conversation with Arch Manning next year.

11 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas RaidersFeb 18, 2026

  Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

  “And you still have Fernando Mendoza being the top pick in the draft.”

  Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Fernando Mendoza

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  1

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  100

  predicted pick:

  1

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York GiantsFeb 18, 2026

  Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5

  “And then you do have the Giants going and grabbing Carnell Tate... the Giants take him at five”

  Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Carnell Tate

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  95.76

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  4

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  95.76

  predicted pick:

  5

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveKansas City ChiefsFeb 18, 2026

  Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 9

  “And then you're looking at the end of your top 10 as we just saw. Jeremiah Love, nine to Kansas City.”

  Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Jeremiyah Love

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  77.11

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  3

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  77.11

  predicted pick:

  9

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsCincinnati BengalsFeb 18, 2026

  Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10

  “Caleb Downs, 10 to Cincinnati.”

  Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Caleb Downs

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  95.76

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  11

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  95.76

  predicted pick:

  10

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorDallas CowboysFeb 18, 2026

  Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 20

  “And they could pick again at 20. They could get maybe Messador from Miami.”

  Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Key Messador

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  undrafted

  outcome:

  went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  undrafted

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  0

  predicted pick:

  20

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona CardinalsFeb 18, 2026

  Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3

  “and Marigoa going to Arizona at three”

  Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Francis Mauigoa

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  73.84

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  10

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  73.84

  predicted pick:

  3

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonNew York JetsFeb 18, 2026

  Ty Simpson to be picked at number 16

  “And then you had Ty Simpson going off the board right in the middle to the Jets... So you think about where the jets are picking at 16.”

  Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Ty Simpson

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  87.81

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  13

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  87.81

  predicted pick:

  16

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsFeb 18, 2026

  Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

  “You got the Jets choosing Arbel Reese out of the Ohio State... And you got Reese there at, second overall”

  Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Arvell Reese

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  87.81

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  5

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  87.81

  predicted pick:

  2

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveFeb 18, 2026

  Jeremiyah Love to be picked “in that top nine somewhere” (picks 1–9)

  “So Jeremiah Love is gonna be in that top nine somewhere.”

  Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  33.93

  player:

  Jeremiyah Love

  season:

  2025

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  3

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  100

  predicted pick:

  in that top nine somewhere (picks 1–9)

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  83.93

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksMatt MooreFeb 18, 2026

  Matt Moore to be picked “right there with Arch as the number one pick next year”

  “Dante made a great decision. Not enough starts at 20. Go back to Oregon. Be right there with Arch as the number one pick next year.”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesDallas CowboysFeb 18, 2026

  Sonny Styles to be picked “your next 10”

  “then you move down to your next 10. You got Sonny Styles heading to Dallas.”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?