Mel Kiper Mock Draft Accuracy: Every Pick, Graded | MissedTakes

Mel Kiper

Every take from Mel Kiper, including the ones still waiting →

Is Mel Kiper accurate? Across 66 graded calls in 9 articles, Mel Kiper scores 82.15% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 35.13, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

82.15%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

35.13

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 9 articles. 38 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Against the grain

Teams and players where Mel Kiper keeps landing outside the room: at least twice, their call sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is their standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.

Caleb Downs+40
Outside the room in 3 of 6 articles — always higher · when they strayed: 67.7 accuracy (3 settled)

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

earliest callscareer avg 79 ┄latest form:

Graded calls · 66

5 of 9 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 2.

Kiper's post-free-agency mock draft, as relayed on the show, assigns specific prospects to specific picks through the top 20, including Fernando Mendoza at No. 2, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5 and CJ Allen to the Cowboys at No. 20.19 graded calls · Mar 21, 2026
- Carnell Tate to be 1st receiver off the board
  “seems to be becoming the kind of consensus first receiver off the board out of Ohio State”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 9.48+90.52 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2026
  naive:
  naming one of the 36 at random averages 9.48
  skill:
  90.52
  player:
  Carnell Tate
  season:
  2026
  zero at:
  credit halves every two places
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:

Kiper's latest mock draft, as relayed on the show, has Caleb Downs second to the Jets, Karnell Tate sixth to the Browns, Spencer Fano fifth to the Giants, Mauigoa 11th to the Dolphins, Jeremiah Love ninth to the Chiefs, Ty Simpson 20th to the Steelers, plus Makai Lemmon, Jordan Tyson and Denzel Boston in the first round.9 graded calls · Feb 27, 2026

Denzel Boston to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“followed by Jordan Tyson to the Ravens, Denzel Boston to the Bills”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Denzel Boston
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
39
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
50
Think this grade is wrong?
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2
“he is the number two prospect or at least going number two to the jets, excuse me, in Melchheimer Junior's latest mock”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
67.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
67.71
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“the highest drafted wideout in Mel Kiper Junior's mock draft going six to the Browns”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
50
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 9
“Mel Kiper's latest mock has him landing in Kansas City with the ninth pick.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
9
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
50
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 5
“a key piece of Mel Kiper Junior's mock draft, and there are six in total going in the first round led by Utah's Spencer Fano going fifth overall to the Giants”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Spencer Fano
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
9
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Jordyn Tyson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“He's one of four wide receivers going in the first round of Mel's draft with... followed by Jordan Tyson to the Ravens”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Jordyn Tyson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Makai Lemon to be picked “in the top 10 to the Saints” (picks 1–10)
“He's one of four wide receivers going in the first round of Mel's draft with USC's Makai Lemmon also in the top 10 to the Saints”
Close · 65Scored 64.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Makai Lemon
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
64.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
20
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
64.84
predicted pick:
in the top 10 to the Saints (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 20
“Mel Kiper had him going 20 to the Steelers in his latest mock.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
0
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
20
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
50
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 11
“Just outside the top 10, Francisco or CC Maui Noah. Mel has him going 11 to the Dolphins”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 60 against a shuffle’s 50+10 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
10
player:
Francis Mauigoa
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
11
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
60