Mel Kiper

75.35%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

45.24

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 2 articles.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 9

In his latest mock draft, Kiper has Ohio State safety Caleb Downs going No. 2 overall to the Jets.Feb 26, 2026
- “I looked at Mel Kuiper's latest mock draft... So he's got Caleb Downs, a safety, going number two to the Jets.”
  Scored 67.71a naive guess scored 50
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2026
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  player:
  Caleb Downs
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  67.71
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  11
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  67.71
  predicted pick:
  2
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  only one pick — no order to score
  Think this grade is wrong?
As relayed by Dan Patrick, Kiper's mock draft has the Titans taking Abdul Carter, Browns taking Cam Ward, Giants taking Travis Hunter, Patriots taking Will Campbell, Jaguars taking Mason Graham, Raiders taking Ashton Jeanty, Jets taking Shedeur Sanders, and Saints taking Tyler Warren.8 graded calls · Feb 25, 2025
- “The Raiders get Ashton Genty”
  Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Ashton Jeanty
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  6
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  100
  predicted pick:
  6
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “Saints take Tyler Warren, the great tight end out of Penn State.”
  Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Tyler Warren
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  80.52
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  14
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  80.52
  predicted pick:
  9
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “The Titans Abdull Carter, Penn State linebacker or edge.”
  Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Abdul Carter
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  91.7
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  3
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  91.7
  predicted pick:
  1
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “The Browns take cam Ward”
  Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Cam Ward
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  95.76
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  1
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  95.76
  predicted pick:
  2
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “Giants take Travis Hunter”
  Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Travis Hunter
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  95.76
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  2
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  95.76
  predicted pick:
  3
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “The Bags take Mason Graham defensive tackle out of Michigan.”
  Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Mason Graham
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  5
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  100
  predicted pick:
  5
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “Patriots take Will Campbell offensive tackle”
  Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Will Campbell
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  4
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  100
  predicted pick:
  4
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “The Jets take Shador Sanders.”
  Scored 0.26 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.24 against a shuffle’s 50+45.24 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2025
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  skill:
  45.24
  player:
  Shedeur Sanders
  season:
  2024
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  0.26
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  144
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:
  18
  pick accuracy:
  0.26
  predicted pick:
  7
  weeks left when called:
  0
  mock ordering score:
  95.24
  Think this grade is wrong?