Joe Dolan

43.75%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

-11.38

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 1 article. 6 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 6

Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting him as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.Jul 5, 2025
“it's like a ten year run of either Travis Kelcey or Tyreek Hill leading the Chiefs and targets. I think that changes this year. I think Rashee Rice gets it done.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 83.33+33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
33.33
player:
Rashee Rice
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting him as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.Jul 5, 2025
“We ran our projections at Fantasy Points immediately after the trade and he came out as tight end thirty three.”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
player:
Darren Waller
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
position:
TE
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
no prior season — the startable tier at TE
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
12
actual finish:
27
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
33
Think this grade is wrong?
Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting him as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.Jul 5, 2025
“I think he's got an opportunity to finishes a real wide receiver one with Patrick Mahomes this year”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Rashee Rice
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
97
actual finish:
41
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this grade is wrong?
Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting him as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.Jul 5, 2025
“So I see a potential bell Cow profile getting drafted in like the fifth sixth round... I love Kenneth Walker this year.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
drafted in like the fifth sixth round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
200
player:
Kenneth Walker III
season:
2025
correct:
true
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
cost round:
6
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB21
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting him as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.Jul 5, 2025
“I could see him taking a step forward into being a sixty catch tight end.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 64.42-128.84 skill
How this was scored
naive:
32.84
skill:
-128.84
what happened:
27
player:
Isaiah Likely
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
64.42
predicted:
60
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
42
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
23.69
zero at percent out:
50
Think this grade is wrong?
Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting him as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.Jul 5, 2025
“he is the expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round. But with John new Smith gone, I think there's massive upside for a Chan in the passing game.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
-200
player:
De'Von Achane
season:
2025
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
cost round:
2
had to beat:
RB5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB7
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?