Joe Dolan· Jul 5, 2025
Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting him as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.
“We ran our projections at Fantasy Points immediately after the trade and he came out as tight end thirty three.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 depth chart call and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 35 out of 100, against 54.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsDarnell MooneyAtlanta FalconsJul 5, 2025
Darnell Mooney to outplay his draft cost (ECR wide receiver forty nine)
“But I just think Darnell Mooney's too cheap and because of that cost, I have been drafting him a lot.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- ECR wide receiver forty nine
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Darnell Mooney
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR31
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR80
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsRashee RiceKansas City ChiefsJul 5, 2025
Rashee Rice to outplay his draft cost (ECR Wide Receiver nineteen)
“You're already getting a discount in ADP, You're getting a discount and expert consensus ranking. I think he's got an opportunity to finishes a real wide receiver one with Patrick Mahomes this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- ECR Wide Receiver nineteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Rashee Rice
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR97
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR41
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsJordan AddisonMinnesota VikingsJul 5, 2025
Jordan Addison to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty five by expert consensus ranking)
“Jordan Addison is way underpriced to me... He's wide receiver thirty five by expert consensus ranking... The thirty fifth in the ranking for a guy who's been the twentieth wide receiver over the last two years.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty five by expert consensus ranking
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Jordan Addison
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR18
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR43
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsDe'Von AchaneMiami DolphinsJul 5, 2025
De'Von Achane to outplay his draft cost (expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round)
“he is the expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round. But with John new Smith gone, I think there's massive upside for a Chan in the passing game.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- De'Von Achane
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- cost round:
- 2
- had to beat:
- RB6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round
- Sleeper CallsIsaiah LikelyBaltimore RavensJul 5, 2025
Isaiah Likely to outplay his draft cost (drafted around tight end twenty one)
“But I like Likely at his price way more than I like Mark Andrews, and I could see him taking a step forward into being a sixty catch tight end.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- drafted around tight end twenty one
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Isaiah Likely
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE50
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (drafted in like the fifth sixth round)
“So I see a potential bell Cow profile getting drafted in like the fifth sixth round... I love Kenneth Walker this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- drafted in like the fifth sixth round
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- cost round:
- 6
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — drafted in like the fifth sixth round
Isaiah Likely to record 60 receptions
“I could see him taking a step forward into being a sixty catch tight end.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 64.42-128.84 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 32.84
- skill:
- -128.84
- what happened:
- 27
- player:
- Isaiah Likely
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 64.42
- predicted:
- 60
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 42
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 23.69
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Rashee Rice to be 1st on the depth chart
“it's like a ten year run of either Travis Kelcey or Tyreek Hill leading the Chiefs and targets. I think that changes this year. I think Rashee Rice gets it done.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 83.33+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Rashee Rice
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Rashee Rice to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“I think he's got an opportunity to finishes a real wide receiver one with Patrick Mahomes this year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Rashee Rice
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 97
- actual finish:
- 41
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Darren Waller to finish top 33 at his position, by fantasy points
“We ran our projections at Fantasy Points immediately after the trade and he came out as tight end thirty three.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Darren Waller
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at TE
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 12
- actual finish:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 33
What others said about the same people
- Trevor RipleyRoster Spot Calls · Dillon BellMiss · 0Ripley expects Max Brosmer to return to the Vikings on the practice squad after being waived, and thinks Dillon Bell may draw waiver interest but is also a practice squad candidate for Minnesota.
- Jason La CanforaRoster Spot Calls · Gerad LichtenhanMiss · 0La Canfora predicts the Ravens will keep several young players on their practice squad — DL Kaimon Rucker, LB Dominic DeLuca, LB Ethan Burke, CB Amani Oruwariye, OT Gerad Lichtenhan and QB Joe Fagnano — and expects the team to make at least one trade from its surplus of cornerbacks.
- Nick ShookPosition Order Calls · Olaivavega IoaneMiss · 35Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Tom StrachanTrade and Signing Calls · Romeo DoubsMiss · 0Tom Strachan offered his own 2026 free-agent landing spots, sending Aaron Rodgers to Arizona, Malik Willis to Pittsburgh, Alec Pierce to Seattle, Mike Evans to Baltimore, Deebo Samuel to Carolina, Kenneth Walker to Houston, Breece Hall to Washington, Kyle Pitts to Philadelphia and Dallas Goedert to Miami, while keeping Daniel Jones and Javonte Williams with their current teams.
- Tom PelisseroTrade and Signing Calls · Adam ThielenHit · 100Pelissero doubted Micah Parsons would ultimately sit out, said the most logical outcome is Parsons showing up and playing out his contract, and pegged his eventual deal in the $45 million-per-year range; he also predicted the Vikings' week one starter opposite Justin Jefferson is not currently on their roster, floating Adam Thielen as a target, and said Justin Jefferson will be good to go for week one.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · Travis HunterHit · 100Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tyler WarrenHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Chris Rodriguez Jr.Hit · 100Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · RJ HarveyHit · 100Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.