Todd McShay Mock Draft Accuracy: Every Pick, Graded

MissedTakes

McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though he'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. He also predicts seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven.15 graded calls · Apr 15, 2026

Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “not gonna go in the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“I'd also throw in there Venga Yowane, but he's a guard, and he's not gonna go in the top 10.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Olaivavega Ioane
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
not gonna go in the top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this grade is wrong?
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top seven (picks 1–7)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Caleb Downs to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
top seven (picks 1–7)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 8
“And Mansoor Delaney's gonna be sitting there at eight probably”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Mansoor Delane
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
8
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“it makes sense that the Titans would then go and take Jeremiah Love with Bailey and Reese gone”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 5
“why do you have them taking Mount Ella fifth here? ... so they were leaning towards Maui Noah. I went Maui Noah.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Francis Mauigoa
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
80.52
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
80.52
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 30
“you have them moving from thirty fourth overall, second pick of night two, to the third to last pick of night one, and take Tye Simpson ... I did I think a fifth and a sixth round pick to move up a handful of spots to to 30.”
Close · 48Scored 47.88 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
47.88
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
47.88
predicted pick:
30
weeks left when called:
0
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Jets are gonna move up to seven for Carnell Tate ... Why do you like this as well?”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“your latest mock draft 4.0 that came out on this very day has Arbel Reiss going to the Saints third overall”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Arvell Reese to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“the best players in this draft are the running back Jeremiah Love, the the off ball linebacker Sonny Styles, conversion guy Arbel Rees... I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top seven (picks 1–7)
weeks left when called:
0
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 6
“I've got the Cowboys trading up for Styles ... if you move up and get a Sonny Styles at number six”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.33 against a shuffle’s 50+38.33 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
38.33
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
88.33
Sonny Styles to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
“It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.33 against a shuffle’s 50+38.33 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
38.33
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top seven (picks 1–7)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
K.C. Concepcion to be 4th receiver off the board
“even though everyone's saying Elmore Cooper is the fourth receiver, honestly, it would be Casey Concepcion as the as the fourth receiver”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 13.82+86.18 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 13.82
skill:
86.18
player:
K.C. Concepcion
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
13.82
position:
receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
4
predicted order:
4
weeks left when called:
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.33 against a shuffle’s 50+38.33 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
38.33
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
88.33

McShay projects the 2026 draft's top of the board: Mendoza first overall to the Raiders, Jeremiah Love inside the top five, Sonny Styles inside the top 10, Ty Simpson as the second quarterback and a first-rounder, and UCF edge Malachi Lawrence as a top-100 pick.6 graded calls · Mar 2, 2026

Malachi Lawrence to be picked “top 100 pick” (picks 1–100)
“So this is a guy who's gonna be top 100 pick who I think has been slept on for way too long.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Malachi Lawrence
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
23
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 100 pick (picks 1–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“You think he'll be a first rounder? That's what you think? I I would be absolutely shocked if Tysons is not a strong pick... I think it's closer to the Rams than people thought in terms of 13, not 29.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“Where are you on the second quarterback? ... Ty Simpson. Ty Simpson all day long.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
skill:
60.3
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
39.7
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
“I don't see Jeremiah Love getting out of the top five... He's not getting out of the top five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“And I think Sonny Styles not getting out of the top 10 anymore.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“the Raiders at one are gonna take Fernando Mendoza”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?

McShay expects Tennessee to finalize on Cam Ward at No. 1, has Cleveland taking Shedeur Sanders at No. 2 and the Giants taking Travis Hunter at No. 3 in his mock draft 2.0, and feels strongly the top four picks are Ward, Abdul Carter, Hunter and Sanders.4 graded calls · Mar 20, 2025

Abdul Carter to be picked “top four picks” (picks 1–4)
“I feel strongly that there's a good chance the four players are Cam Ward, Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter, and Shador Sanders going in the top four picks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Abdul Carter
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top four picks (picks 1–4)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
75
Think this grade is wrong?
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 3
“for the Giants... I I think if it goes quarterback one two, it comes down to Hunter versus Abdul Carter. I went with Hunter.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Travis Hunter
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 2
“I went with Cleveland taking Shador Sanders, and here's why... there's a lot of elements to the Cleveland decision at two.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
0.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
144
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.21
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
“I think they're getting close to finalizing the decision that Cam Ward's the number one pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Cam Ward
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
75

Graded calls · 26