Todd McShay· Mar 2, 2026

McShay projects the 2026 draft's top of the board: Mendoza first overall to the Raiders, Jeremiah Love inside the top five, Sonny Styles inside the top 10, Ty Simpson as the second quarterback and a first-rounder, and UCF edge Malachi Lawrence as a top-100 pick.

“The Jets are gonna take a defensive player, and the Raiders at one are gonna take Fernando Mendoza.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where this call stands in the room

Fernando Mendoza · 2026 season · overall pick

Todd McShay — 1 overall pickthe room — 24 calls from 22 punditsmedian 1 overall pickwhat happened — 1 overall pick

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overall pick

top 10 (picks 1–10)They said

7What happened

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Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Sonny StylesMar 2, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“And I think Sonny Styles not getting out of the top 10 anymore.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Fernando Mendoza Las Vegas RaidersMar 2, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“the Raiders at one are gonna take Fernando Mendoza”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Jeremiyah LoveMar 2, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
“I don't see Jeremiah Love getting out of the top five... He's not getting out of the top five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Ty SimpsonMar 2, 2026
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“Where are you on the second quarterback? ... Ty Simpson. Ty Simpson all day long.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
skill:
60.3
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
39.7
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Ty SimpsonMar 2, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“You think he'll be a first rounder? That's what you think? I I would be absolutely shocked if Tysons is not a strong pick... I think it's closer to the Rams than people thought in terms of 13, not 29.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Malachi LawrenceMar 2, 2026
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “top 100 pick” (picks 1–100)
“So this is a guy who's gonna be top 100 pick who I think has been slept on for way too long.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Malachi Lawrence
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
23
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 100 pick (picks 1–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?

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