David Harrison· Feb 7, 2026
Harrison proposes and defends a hypothetical trade sending Daron Payne plus a third- and sixth-round pick to the Raiders for Maxx Crosby, plus a follow-up trade of the No. 7 pick to the Jets for picks 16 and 33. He also states Fernando Mendoza is expected to go No. 1 overall to the Raiders, and floats the Jets taking David Bailey at No. 7 if they trade up.
“Fernando Mendoza is expected at least as of right now to go number one overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls, 1 mock draft pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 65.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Fernando Mendoza is expected at least as of right now to go number one overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York JetsFeb 7, 2026
New York Jets to pick at number 2
“The jets currently have a first round pick at number two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 80.52+19.48 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 7 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Daron Payne to move to Las Vegas Raiders
“recapping our trade offer to the Las Vegas Raiders, Deron Payne, defensive tackle, number 71 overall, third round pick, and a sixth round pick in the twenty twenty six NFL draft in exchange for Max Crosby straight up.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Maxx Crosby to move to Washington Commanders
“my trade offer is defensive tackle, Deron Payne, pick number 71, third round overall, and pick number one ninety seven in the sixth round... Or either way, the Las Vegas Raiders then in turn send over Max Crosby.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Philip HughesRoster Spot Calls · Terry McLaurinHit · 100Hughes surveys Washington's remaining roster questions, asserting that Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are locks for the 53-man roster and that Antonio Williams has essentially secured a spot as the third receiver, while Percy Butler's standing improved after safety cuts.
- Hondo CarpenterRoster Spot Calls · Patrick JohnsonHit · 100Carpenter says the right guard competition currently favors Jackson Powers-Johnson over Caleb Rogers, though he expects Rogers to get starts at some point this season, and he projects veteran DE Patrick Johnson to make the 53-man roster.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · Darius SlaytonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece on the Giants releasing Darius Slayton predicts he will be signed by another NFL team fairly quickly, and lists possible landing spots without committing to one.
- Noah StrackbeinTrade and Signing Calls · Darius SlaytonHit · 100Strackbein says Pittsburgh views Roman Wilson as its No. 3 receiver behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr., but argues the Steelers should add released Giants veteran Darius Slayton as insurance, expecting Slayton to sign cheaply on a veteran-minimum deal, and refers to 2026 as Aaron Rodgers' final season.
- Patricia TrainaTrade and Signing Calls · Darius SlaytonHit · 100Traina writes that the Giants may make more trades before the roster cutdown and names the players she sees as the most likely candidates to be dealt: kicker Ben Sauls, one of receivers Darius Slayton or Darnell Mooney, offensive lineman Jake Kubas, and linebacker Darius Muasau.
- Devon PlatanaTrade and Signing Calls · Johnny HekkerHit · 100With punter Brett Thorson dealing with a hamstring injury, Platana suggests the Vikings have a decent chance of bringing back veteran free-agent punter Johnny Hekker as a familiar fill-in.
- Greg AumanTrade and Signing Calls · Will LevisHit · 100Auman predicts that Will Levis, released by Tennessee, will almost certainly be claimed on waivers by another team.
- John MaakaronTrade and Signing Calls · Joe BachieHit · 100Maakaron suggests several Lions players could be cut and land on other rosters: linebacker Joe Bachie, defensive linemen Ben Stille and Chris Smith, and running back Sione Vaki.