David Harrison· Apr 20, 2026
In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round.
“Because the first pick that we make in this mock draft, pick number 16, Dylan Thieneman, safety out of Oregon.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
12 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks and 4 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 31.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Riley Nowakowski to be picked “seventh round pick” (picks 217–257)
“Riley Nowakowski out of Indiana... So he is the seventh round pick wrapping up this mock draft.”
Miss · 13Scored 12.5 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Riley Nowakowski
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 12.5
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 169
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 12.5
- predicted pick:
- seventh round pick (picks 217–257)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
Lorenzo Styles to be picked at number 209
“Six round two zero nine, the next pick, Lorenzo Styles Junior. I'm calling him a DB.”
Miss · 20Scored 20.13 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Lorenzo Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 20.13
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 172
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 20.13
- predicted pick:
- 209
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
- Mock Draft PicksJulian NealWashington CommandersApr 20, 2026
Julian Neal to be picked at number 147
“Now at pick number one forty seven, we come back. Julian Neal, cornerback out of Arkansas.”
Miss · 13Scored 12.5 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Julian Neal
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 12.5
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 99
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 12.5
- predicted pick:
- 147
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
Mike Washington to be picked at number 83
“with the third round pick at number 83, Mike Washington Junior running back out of Arkansas”
Miss · 18Scored 18.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Mike Washington
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 18.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 122
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 18.46
- predicted pick:
- 83
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
Denzel Boston to be picked at number 33
“the Washington mayor is very happy to have him there at 33, and that is wide receiver Denzel Boston out of Washington”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Denzel Boston
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 33
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
Jager Burton to be picked at number 132
“with the one thirty second pick in the NFL draft, the Washington mayors take Jager Jagger Burton... center out of Kentucky”
Close · 40Scored 40.26 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Jager Burton
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 153
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- 132
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
Cade Klubnik to be picked at number 187
“Six round pick number one eighty seven, quarterback, Cade Clubnik out of Clemson.”
Miss · 4Scored 3.56 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Cade Klubnik
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 3.56
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 110
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 3.56
- predicted pick:
- 187
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 16
“the first pick that we make in this mock draft, pick number 16, Dylan Thieneman, safety out of Oregon. Great value at number 16.”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.71 against a shuffle’s 50+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.71
Cade Klubnik to be 3rd on the depth chart
“Kave Clubnick, again, third quarterback right now, second quarterback of the future”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Mike Washington to be 3rd on the depth chart
“Mike Washington junior, who I think will be slotted in as the third back”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jager Burton to be 3rd on the depth chart
“Jagger Burton, I think he comes in, and you're gonna probably list him as your third center, but he's gonna compete for that second spot”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Nick Allegretti to be 1st on the depth chart
“compete even, in year one with Nick Allegretti, though I would probably, project Nick Allegretti to win that battle”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Nick PedoneRoster Spot Calls · Denzel BostonHit · 100Previewing the Browns' preseason finale, Pedone says five receivers — Jerry Jeudy, KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, Isaiah Bond and Tylan Wallace — are very likely to make Cleveland's 53-man roster, leaving one final spot open for Luke Floriea and others.
- Nick PedoneRoster Spot Calls · Denzel BostonHit · 100Reading the Browns' first depth chart, Pedone projects Deshaun Watson as the Week 1 starting quarterback, lays out the full projected starting offensive line with Parker Brailsford as backup center, expects KT Leveston to make the roster as guard depth, and names Jeudy, Concepcion, Boston and Bond as roster locks with Tylan Wallace as the fifth receiver.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Jacob WestendorfRoster Spot Calls · Jager BurtonHit · 100In his final 53-man roster projection for the Packers, Westendorf names every player he expects to make the initial roster, places Luke Musgrave and Micah Parsons on PUP, projects Anthony Campbell as the final cut headed to the practice squad, and sets out several depth-chart calls (Love over Taylor, Jacobs as the bell cow, Franklin/Cooper starting at linebacker, Cox and Dennis-Sutton as the No. 2 edge tandem in Week 1).
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Bill HuberRoster Spot Calls · Jager BurtonHit · 100Ahead of final cuts, Huber assigns Packers players probability tiers for making the 53-man roster, calling 40 players locks and another 12 more likely than not to stick, while projecting Keisean Nixon as a Week 1 starting cornerback, Tyrod Taylor as the backup QB, Skyy Moore as the returner, and Micah Parsons, Luke Musgrave and Jordon Riley opening the season on PUP.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.