Lance Zierlein Mock Draft Accuracy: Every Pick, Graded | MissedTakes

Lance Zierlein

Lance Zierlein covers the NFL draft and roster analysis for Move the Sticks and The 33rd Team. His work spans draft projections, player movement, and team evaluations, with particular attention to prospects like Mason Taylor, Rueben Bain, and Caleb Downs, alongside coverage of the Houston Texans and teams across the league.

Writes at John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)

Every take from Lance Zierlein, including the ones still waiting →

Is Lance Zierlein accurate? Across 40 graded calls in 16 articles, Lance Zierlein scores 66.11% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 19.36, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.

66.11%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

19.36

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 16 articles. 45 more not yet settled.

A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.

96.36% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Awards

Computed, never chosen: the best article-weighted record among eligible pundits over a completed period. Eligibility follows the leaderboard’s bar — provisional records cannot win.

Pundit of the Week · MissedTakes ScoreWeek 32, 2026MissedTakes Score 53.19 · 13 graded takes across 6 articles

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

earliest callscareer avg 65 ┄latest form: 77

Graded calls · 40

Lance picked the Texans to beat the Bills in the season opener, settling on a final score of 23-17 after initially saying 23-16.Sep 11, 2026
- Houston Texans 23 — Bills 17
  “Texans beat him, 23 to 16. Okay. 23. No. That's four scores. I'm gonna go I'll go twenty three seventeen.”
  Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 36.83+21.59 skill
  How this was scored
  score:
  36-31
  skill:
  21.59
  they picked:
  HOU
  season:
  2026
  accuracy:
  47.62
  baseline:
  36.83
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  actual margin:
  5
  weeks left when called:
  18

Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.5 graded calls · Apr 21, 2026

Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“the one thing that we're talking about being a lock them if you lock it in Ty Simpson, is he a locked to do in the first round. I'm gonna say lock... I feel like it's starting to look more and more like Arizona.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 3
“I have Styles going four, I had Jeremy I Love three.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremy I Love
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“So what I ultimately did was I think I ended up going Caleb Downs there at at pick number five.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board
“So if he's on the board, we take him because he's the only first round linebacker.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 20.82+79.18 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 26 at random averages 20.82
skill:
79.18
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
20.82
position:
linebacker
class size:
26
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
3
predicted order:
1–32
weeks left when called:
0
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4
“Now I've got Sonny Styles going to Robert Salah at four.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100

Zierlein laid out a full mock of the top eight picks of the upcoming draft, and predicted the Texans will likely trade back out of the first round rather than pick at 28. He also expects the Giants to use pick 5 on a receiver and later trade up for Caleb Downs, and thinks Myles Garrett could be traded by the deadline.7 graded calls · Apr 20, 2026

Rueben Bain to be picked at number 7
“Commander seven? Seven would be probably Ruben Bane.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Rueben Bain
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
15
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
70.71
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this grade is wrong?
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“Six browns would be, either Carnell Tate... Let's say Carnell Tate there.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“One, Raiders, Mendoza.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this grade is wrong?
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“Two, who you got? David Bailey.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this grade is wrong?
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“Five? Five. I'll go downs. Giants.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this grade is wrong?
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 8
“Eight Saints? Saints would be, Jordan Tyson.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Jordyn Tyson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
8
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this grade is wrong?
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“Okay. Three. I'm still gonna say Reese.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this grade is wrong?

Zuerlein describes his mock draft 3.0: Carnell Tate to the Giants at No. 5, Sonny Styles falling to the Cowboys at No. 12, and Colton Hood to Dallas at No. 20. He also expects runs on linebackers from the late twenties to about pick 45, defensive tackles from the early-mid twenties into the 40s, and says Ahvion Terrell's 4.65 forty knocks him out of first-round contention. He calls Kenyon Saddiq and Mansoor Delaine the safest picks for Dallas, and thinks Delaine's tape is top-four caliber, while Jeremiah Smith could be a generational, Megatron-type receiver.6 graded calls · Apr 5, 2026

Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12
“And I had him sit there, and I had him fall to the Cowboys. And I said, well, this is a no brainer.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
40
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
80.52
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
80.52
predicted pick:
12
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
90
Think this grade is wrong?
Colton Hood to be picked at number 20
“I ended up having Colton Hood there in that spot. And I had him there last time”
Close · 48Scored 47.88 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Colton Hood
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
47.88
baseline:
50
actual pick:
37
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
47.88
predicted pick:
20
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
75
Jermott McCoy to be picked at number 20
“Jermott McCoy? Take. ... I'll take him at 20”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Jermott McCoy
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
20
weeks left when called:
0
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 12
“Jeremiah Love? I may have 12. I'll take them.”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
67.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
67.71
predicted pick:
12
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
75
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
“I decided to go cardinal Tate there with the Giants ... at number five with the Giants”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
75
Avieon Terrell to be picked “knock him out of first round contention” (picks 1–32)
“Avion Terrell ran a four six five out of out of, Clemson, and that's, like, gonna knock him out of first round contention.”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
25
player:
Avieon Terrell
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
actual pick:
48
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
50
predicted pick:
knock him out of first round contention (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0

Zierlein says the Texans should target a guard at pick 28 (likely after trading back), naming the Texas A&M guard and Oregon guard as targets, says the Penn State guard will be gone by then, and that Spencer Fano won't be available at 28 but shouldn't be drafted as a tackle inside the top 10. He also says Caleb Lomu will be drafted before 28 and that in his most recent mock he gave the Texans Lomu, and did not have Ty Simpson in the first round.4 graded calls · Mar 9, 2026

Spencer Fano to be picked “not inside the top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
“Like, you can't draft him as a tackle. Not 32 and an eights armed, not inside the top 10 picks. So if he were available at 28, I would a 100% take him... I don't think he'll be there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Spencer Fano
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
9
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
not inside the top 10 picks (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 28
“I gave them in my last mock draft. I gave the Texans Caleb Lomew at tackle.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Lomew
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
28
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Kade Casey to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
“Guard cage, Casey from Boise State. This guy, Caleb Tiernan from Northwestern. These are two second round tackles with short arms”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kade Casey
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Caleb Tiernan to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
“This guy, Caleb Tiernan from Northwestern. These are two second round tackles with short arms who are gonna move down inside the guard.”
Miss · 24Scored 23.94a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Tiernan
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
23.94
baseline:
50
actual pick:
97
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
23.94
predicted pick:
second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?

Filling in for Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Z said Derek Stingley has passed Sauce Gardner and is now the second-best cornerback in the league behind Patrick Surtain; he expects Dak Prescott to return to the executives' top-10 quarterback list next year, doubts Caleb Williams cracks the top 10 but sees a big bounce-back for him and the Bears, and thinks Washington gets an extension done with Terry McLaurin.3 graded calls · Jul 17, 2025

Dak Prescott to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“I think Dak is the guy that makes it back on the list next year... I think he gets back on that list in twenty twenty six when they do that list list again.”
Close · 42Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 0+83.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
83.33
player:
Dak Prescott
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
41.67
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
31
actual finish:
3
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
10
Think this grade is wrong?
Derek Stingley Jr. to finish top 2 at his position, by interceptions
“But Stingley I think has surpassed Sauce. Gardner's a top corner out of that class and really I think the second best corner to Patrick Sir Tam.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 16.67-33.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-33.33
player:
Derek Stingley Jr.
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
16.67
position:
secondary
ranked by:
interceptions
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
8
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
Terry McLaurin to move to Washington Commanders
“as long as the contract stuff doesn't cause that team to short circuit a little bit, which I don't think that will be the case. I think they'll get something done with McLaurin.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Terry McLaurin
season:
2025
claimed:
WAS
was with:
WAS
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
ended up with:
WAS
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?

Zierlein said Kansas State's Jacob Parrish helped himself with his testing and will be a second-round cornerback, put South Carolina safety Nick Emnori inside the top 16 after his workout, pegged Mason Taylor as the third tight end off the board and possibly a first-rounder, and called Alabama's Robbie Oots a future NFL fullback who will be on a roster.3 graded calls · Mar 1, 2025

Jacob Parrish to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
“He is a guy who is going to move up. He'll be a second round cornerback in this draft.”
Close · 42Scored 42.04a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jacob Parrish
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
42.04
baseline:
50
actual pick:
84
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
42.04
predicted pick:
second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Mason Taylor to be 3rd tight end off the board
“I know that I think Mason Taylor will probably be the third guy off... I think Mason Taylor's a third”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 28.72+71.28 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
naming one of the 16 at random averages 28.72
skill:
71.28
player:
Mason Taylor
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
28.72
position:
tight end
class size:
16
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
3
predicted order:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Mason Taylor to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“it wouldn't shock me if maybe a sneaky third tight end got into the first round. Yeah, with Mason Taylor”
Close · 65Scored 64.84a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Mason Taylor
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
64.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
42
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
64.84
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?