Aaron Schatz

49%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

-24.7

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 1 article. 4 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 9

Presenting the FTN Football Almanac 2025 projections, Schatz projects the 49ers as the NFC's best team (11.2 wins) and NFC West champion, the Jaguars to win the AFC South with nine wins, the Commanders at 10.6 wins winning the NFC East ahead of Philadelphia, the Raiders at 8.3 wins, the Steelers and Cowboys both at 7.7 wins, and the Panthers last at 5.5 wins.9 graded calls · Jul 25, 2025
- “the Panthers are dead last, like five and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make the playoffs”
  Scored 50a naive guess scored 75-50 skill
  How this was scored
  team:
  CAR
  naive:
  6.75
  skill:
  -50
  what happened:
  8
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  5
  accuracy:
  50
  baseline:
  75
  predicted:
  5.5
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
  Scored 86a naive guess scored 85+2 skill
  How this was scored
  team:
  DAL
  naive:
  7.75
  skill:
  2
  what happened:
  7
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  5
  accuracy:
  86
  baseline:
  85
  predicted:
  7.7
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “You have the Commanders at ten point six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.”
  Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  team:
  WAS
  naive:
  10.25
  skill:
  0
  what happened:
  5
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  5
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0
  predicted:
  10.6
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “we've got the Raiders with your projections getting eight point three wins... thirty eight point six percent chance of making the playoffs”
  Scored 0a naive guess scored 35-70 skill
  How this was scored
  team:
  LV
  naive:
  6.25
  skill:
  -70
  what happened:
  3
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  5
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  35
  predicted:
  8.3
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “you have them in your overall DVOA projections for the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington is at five... the Panthers are dead last... You have the Saints projected to be like the thirtieth best team in the league.”
  Scored 30a naive guess scored 60-60 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  -60
  method:
  spearman
  season:
  2025
  accuracy:
  30
  baseline:
  60
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  teams ranked:
  4
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to make the playoffs.”
  Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
  How this was scored
  team:
  JAX
  naive:
  6.25
  skill:
  40
  what happened:
  13
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  5
  accuracy:
  20
  baseline:
  0
  predicted:
  9
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “You have the forty nine Ers at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL.”
  Scored 84a naive guess scored 5+158 skill
  How this was scored
  team:
  SF
  naive:
  7.25
  skill:
  158
  what happened:
  12
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  5
  accuracy:
  84
  baseline:
  5
  predicted:
  11.2
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
  Scored 54a naive guess scored 85-62 skill
  How this was scored
  team:
  PIT
  naive:
  9.25
  skill:
  -62
  what happened:
  10
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  5
  accuracy:
  54
  baseline:
  85
  predicted:
  7.7
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?
- “They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired”
  Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skill
  How this was scored
  club:
  LAC
  skill:
  -16.67
  player:
  Tre Harris
  season:
  2025
  accuracy:
  75
  baseline:
  83.33
  position:
  WR
  naive slot:
  2
  actual slot:
  4
  difficulty:
  2
  measured by:
  receptions
  naive basis:
  no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
  weeks in the season:
  18
  predicted slot:
  1
  weeks left when called:
  18
  Think this grade is wrong?