Aaron Schatz · Jul 25, 2025

Presenting the FTN Football Almanac 2025 projections, Schatz projects the 49ers as the NFC's best team (11.2 wins) and NFC West champion, the Jaguars to win the AFC South with nine wins, the Commanders at 10.6 wins winning the NFC East ahead of Philadelphia, the Raiders at 8.3 wins, the Steelers and Cowboys both at 7.7 wins, and the Panthers last at 5.5 wins.

“Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion.”

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

13 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Power RankingsJul 25, 2025
“you have them in your overall DVOA projections for the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington is at five... the Panthers are dead last... You have the Saints projected to be like the thirtieth best team in the league.”
Scored 30a naive guess scored 60-60 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-60
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
30
baseline:
60
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
4
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Tre Harris Los Angeles ChargersJul 25, 2025
“They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAC
skill:
-16.67
player:
Tre Harris
season:
2025
accuracy:
75
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
4
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Pittsburgh SteelersJul 25, 2025
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
Scored 54a naive guess scored 85-62 skill
How this was scored
team:
PIT
naive:
9.25
skill:
-62
what happened:
10
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
54
baseline:
85
predicted:
7.7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Las Vegas RaidersJul 25, 2025
“we've got the Raiders with your projections getting eight point three wins... thirty eight point six percent chance of making the playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 35-70 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
6.25
skill:
-70
what happened:
3
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
35
predicted:
8.3
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals San Francisco 49ersJul 25, 2025
“You have the forty nine Ers at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL.”
Scored 84a naive guess scored 5+158 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
7.25
skill:
158
what happened:
12
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
84
baseline:
5
predicted:
11.2
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Washington CommandersJul 25, 2025
“You have the Commanders at ten point six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
naive:
10.25
skill:
0
what happened:
5
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
10.6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Jacksonville JaguarsJul 25, 2025
“you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to make the playoffs.”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
6.25
skill:
40
what happened:
13
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Dallas CowboysJul 25, 2025
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
Scored 86a naive guess scored 85+2 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
naive:
7.75
skill:
2
what happened:
7
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
86
baseline:
85
predicted:
7.7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Carolina PanthersJul 25, 2025
“the Panthers are dead last, like five and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make the playoffs”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 75-50 skill
How this was scored
team:
CAR
naive:
6.75
skill:
-50
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
50
baseline:
75
predicted:
5.5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Brock Bowers Las Vegas RaidersJul 25, 2025
“Jacoby Myers is a night slot receiver, but he's no one idea of a number one. But the number one is really Bowers.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Jacksonville JaguarsJul 25, 2025
“You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's only by you know, half a game in your projections”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Washington CommandersJul 25, 2025
“a better chance to win the NFC East over Philadelphia”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners San Francisco 49ersJul 25, 2025
“Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?