Aaron Schatz· Aug 12, 2025
Schatz gives FTN's top five projected teams for 2025 (Ravens, Lions, Bills, Chiefs, Commanders), picks Bills over... a Bills-Lions Super Bowl matchup, names Bijan Robinson the top fantasy running back, and tabs Packers rookie Matthew Golden as a sleeper who breaks out.
“I'm going with the Bills and the Lions as my Super Bowl.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 depth chart call, 1 positional finishe and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 47.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsBuffalo BillsAug 12, 2025
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
“I'm going with the Bills and the Lions as my Super Bowl.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Conference ChampionsDetroit LionsAug 12, 2025
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
“I'm going with the Bills and the Lions as my Super Bowl.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Power RankingsAug 12, 2025
“And these are my top five projected teams for twenty twenty five. Ravens, Lions, Bills, Chiefs and Commanders.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 10
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsMatthew GoldenGreen Bay PackersAug 12, 2025
Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart
“he is what they're looking for, which is a clear number one”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Matthew Golden
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesBijan RobinsonAug 12, 2025
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
“he likes Bijon Robinson over Saquon Barkley in most leagues... that's why we've got Jean Robinson actually as the top running back this year.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
What others said about the same people
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
- Tyler SullivanScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Sullivan has Tampa Bay blowing out Cleveland, Green Bay winning narrowly at the Jets, and Philadelphia beating Tennessee by double digits.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersHit · 90Prisco picks final scores for every Week 2 NFL game, with several teams that lost in Week 1 — the Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys, Packers and Rams — bouncing back, and the Bills outlasting the Lions in a shootout.
- Mark Morales-SmithGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100In a Week 2 start/sit column, Morales-Smith names four benched players he expects to outperform expectations: Jordan Love, Kaelon Black, Jakobi Meyers and Dalton Schultz. He also predicts Green Bay beats the Jets, San Francisco blows out Miami, and that Nico Collins won't play against Cincinnati.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Sherman ran through the entire Week 2 slate with winners and several exact final scores, picking Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, New England, Jacksonville, Dallas, Kansas City, the Rams, Green Bay, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and Carolina. He also called Fred Warner the league's best middle linebacker and floated Parker Washington as a top-five receiver.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100In a piece ranking five 0-1 teams by how badly they need a Week 2 win, the only concrete on-field call is that Green Bay should go into MetLife Stadium and beat the Jets in Week 2.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.