Albert Breer Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

Albert Breer

Albert Breer covers the NFL for Sports Illustrated and appears regularly on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, The Rich Eisen Show, and 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe. His training camp notebook series takes him across the league — we've tracked his observations on the Bills, Browns, Bears, and Chiefs, along with his draft projections and player movement reports.

Writes at Sports Illustrated

Every take from Albert Breer, including the ones still waiting →

Is Albert Breer accurate? Across 31 graded calls in 7 articles, Albert Breer scores 73.84% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 40.59, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

73.84%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

40.59

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 7 articles. 42 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Game Outcome Picks16 graded62.5 accuracy
Mock Draft Picks6 graded91.19 accuracy

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

earliest callscareer avg 66 ┄latest form: 60

Graded calls · 31

Breer's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.16 graded calls · Sep 9, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Falcons
  “Falcons at Steelers — Albert Breer: Steelers”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
  How this was scored
  won:
  PIT
  score:
  13-20
  skill:
  0
  they picked:
  PIT
  season:
  2026
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  100
  the naive pick:
  PIT
  difficulty:
  2
  weeks in the season:
  18
  weeks left when called:

Breer said Ty Simpson won't be a first-round pick and will likely land in the second round, while Indiana receiver Omar Cooper is probably a first-rounder and teammate Elijah Surratt might go somewhere in the top 100. He also called Oregon's Dante Moore the closest thing to a lock among the 2027 first-round quarterback crop.3 graded calls · Apr 8, 2026

Omar Cooper to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
“he's throwing to Omar Cooper, who's probably gonna be a first round pick”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Omar Cooper
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
30
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Ty Simpson to be picked “somewhere in the second round” (picks 33–64)
“my guess would be Ty Simpson for those reasons probably goes somewhere in the second round because I don't think people look at him and say, yeah. That guy projects to be one of the top 10 quarterbacks in football.”
Close · 42Scored 42.04a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
42.04
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
42.04
predicted pick:
somewhere in the second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Elijah Sarratt to be picked “somewhere in the top 100” (picks 1–100)
“Elijah Surratt, who's might be somewhere in the top 100”
Close · 52Scored 52.21a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Elijah Sarratt
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
52.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
115
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
52.21
predicted pick:
somewhere in the top 100 (picks 1–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?

Breer says the consensus he's gathered is that Fernando Mendoza is far and away the top quarterback of the class and a potential No. 1 overall pick, while some teams don't see Ty Simpson as a first-rounder — though he wouldn't be surprised if Simpson ends up going in the first round anyway. He also expects Aaron Rodgers to return to Pittsburgh for a 22nd season and sees a real possibility of the Eagles trading AJ Brown to the Patriots after June 1.3 graded calls · Mar 25, 2026

Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“So, would it surprise me if he won the first round? No. ... it wouldn't surprise me if he winds up going in the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
A.J. Brown to move to New England Patriots
“I certainly think that there's a possibility that the Patriots and Eagles do wind up doing a deal post June 1”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
player:
A.J. Brown
season:
2026
claimed:
NE
was with:
PHI
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
reported:
traded → NE (from PHI)
settled by:
a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“it does feel like the general consensus is it's Fernando Mendoza at the top of the class and then a drop off... the consensus that I've gotten thus far is that Mendoza is far and away, you know, the the the number one guy”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
skill:
66.92
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
33.08
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1