Danny Parkins
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
78.26% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
Graded calls · 27
“I think Herbert, like you do, is a superstar so I really like them to I think they're gonna win the game”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 3-16
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“I will be shocked if he isn't a top ten quarterback for the next decade”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 24
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
“McDonald's probably I think I think he deserves it this year, and that's over by guy Ben Johnson.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Mike Macdonald
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“two of the next four years, I think you have a top ten quarterback Lamar Jackson”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 6
- actual finish:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
“They're a thirteen win team until proven otherwise.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“the Raiders go over on six and a half”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“that's an under... For them at nine and a half... win seven eight games”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 55+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- naive:
- 11.25
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 55
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Bills are a clear overteam at eleven and a half.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 10.75
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“the Falcons get over on seven and a half wins”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- ATL
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 95
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I think they hit their over on five and a half wins... I think they can eke out six wins.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 45-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TEN
- naive:
- 5.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Bengals are double did you win team.”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 45-50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- naive:
- 8.75
- skill:
- -50
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The Packers are under at nine and a half... I think it's more like an eight win season for the Packers.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 85-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Over at nine and a half”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I'm definitely picking them for over at ten and a half... That's still an eleven or twelve win team.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DET
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The Eagles aren't over team. They're totals at eleven and a half”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 95-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PHI
- naive:
- 11.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 95
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“then Ravens under eleven and a half... I think that they can be a ten win team”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 55+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 55
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The Rams have won over ten games in six of the eight years with Sean McVay... I just can't quit the Rams”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 45+70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 70
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The Giants are an over team for me at five and a half”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 65-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- naive:
- 5.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 4
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 65
- predicted:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“They're a nine or a ten win team this season.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 15+90 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 90
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 15
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I think the Falcons are an overteam, same with the Panthers... They can win seven games.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Mike Tomlin's gonna get you to over eight and a half”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 85-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The Chargers. I expect them back in the playoffs”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I am fourth on a bad quarterback depth chart for a bad organization... because if you're fourth on that depth chart, you're a long ways away from actually playing meaningful football in the NFL”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 91.67-33.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- -33.33
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Explain to me why Justin Herbert isn't the fifth best quarterback in football because he passes my beautiful eye test.”
Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 100-66.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -66.67
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 9
- actual finish:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 5
“we will begin with my top ten teams heading in to the upcoming football season... Number ten, it's the Chargers of Los Angeles... Number nine the Washington Commanders... Number eight the San Francisco forty nine ers... Cincinnati Bengals [number seven]... Number six... this Rams team... Number five... Baltimore Ravens... Number four... the Bills... The Detroit Lions come in at number three... Number two the Kansas City Chiefs... Number one the Philadelphia Eagles”
Scored 70.24a naive guess scored 58.33+23.81 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 23.81
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 70.24
- baseline:
- 58.33
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“with the best running back in the NFL”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Saquon Barkley
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- rushing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
“Top ten quarterbacks in the NFL heading into the twenty twenty five NFL season, Number ten, Jalen Hurts ... Number nine ... Baker Mayfield ... Number eight Jared Goff ... Number seven ... Jaden Daniels ... Number six ... Matt Stafford ... Number five ... Justin Herbert ... Number four ... Lamar Jackson ... Number three. Joe Burrow ... Number two ... Josh Allen ... Number one ... Mahomes”
Scored 47.88a naive guess scored 50-4.24 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -4.24
- placed:
- 10
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 10
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 10: 47.88
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18