Danny Parkins· Apr 23, 2026
Danny Parkins presented his one-and-only 2026 mock draft, including trades: Mendoza at 1 to the Raiders, David Bailey second to the Jets, the Cowboys trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Bears trading up to 16 for Kadyn Proctor, and Ty Simpson going to Arizona at 32 at the end of round one.
“I got number one right. Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at one.”
said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →
25 checkable claims — 23 mock draft picks and 2 team draft slot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 41 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
22 of 25 have settled so far, averaging 80.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- David Bailey
- New York Jets
- Peter Woods
- Buffalo Bills
- Sonny Styles
- New York Giants
- Arvell Reese
- Dallas Cowboys
- Jeremiyah Love
- Tennessee Titans
- Francis Mauigoa
- Cleveland Browns
- Kadyn Proctor
- Chicago Bears
- Dillon Thieneman
- Minnesota Vikings
- Makai Lemon
- Carolina Panthers
- Monroe Freeling
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Denzel Boston
- Colton Hood
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- New England Patriots
- Ty Simpson
- Arizona Cardinals
- Fernando Mendoza
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Omar Cooper
- Los Angeles Rams
- Kenyon Sadiq
- Baltimore Ravens
- Caleb Downs
- Rueben Bain
- New Orleans Saints
- Olaivavega Ioane
- Detroit Lions
- Carnell Tate
- Washington Commanders
- B.J.
25 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsApr 23, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“I think the Jets with Aaron Glenn go with the more surefire pass rusher, David Bailey, over Arvell Reese at two”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.75 against a shuffle’s 50+41.75 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 41.75
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 91.75
- Mock Draft PicksPeter WoodsBuffalo BillsApr 23, 2026
Peter Woods to be picked at number 26
“I think Peter Woods and Caden McDonald would be like the top guys for the Bills. I had them going with the DT out of Clemson.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.75 against a shuffle’s 50+41.75 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 41.75
- player:
- Peter Woods
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 29
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 91.75
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesNew York GiantsApr 23, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 5
“Sonny Styles to the Giants.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.75 against a shuffle’s 50+41.75 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 41.75
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 91.75
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseDallas CowboysApr 23, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“And I have Dallas taking the big swing... Arvel Reese with the comps to Micah Parsons, they give up twelve and twenty to move up.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveTennessee TitansApr 23, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“The fourth pick is not what I would do, but Jeremiah Love, people say is the best player in the draft... I do think if he is there, they will do it.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaCleveland BrownsApr 23, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 6
“Francis Manenoah for the Browns, I know they need a left tackle.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksKadyn ProctorChicago BearsApr 23, 2026
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 16
“So I have the Bears taking the second round pick that they got in the DJ Moore trade and jumping the Lions, jumping the Vikings and moving up for K Pop... So Caden Proctor to the Bears”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 18
“Everyone has Dylan Thieneman, back to the Vikings.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonCarolina PanthersApr 23, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 19
“The Panthers going with McKay Lemmon”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 23
“Eagles are gonna be a prime team to trade up, but they'll settle for Monroe Freeling.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksDenzel BostonNew York JetsApr 23, 2026
Denzel Boston to be picked at number 25
“I'm going Denzel Boston, to to the Jets”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Denzel Boston
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 25
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksColton HoodKansas City ChiefsApr 23, 2026
Colton Hood to be picked at number 29
“Chiefs rebuild their secondary in one draft at the corner out of Tennessee... I had them just overhauling their secondary with Caleb Downs and Colton Hood with the two picks.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Colton Hood
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 37
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 70.71
- predicted pick:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 31
“Most people don't have the Patriots taking a safety, but most people also have McNeil Warren going higher than this.”
Miss · 31Scored 31.05 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 31.05
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 58
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 31.05
- predicted pick:
- 31
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonArizona CardinalsApr 23, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 32
“So I have Arizona jump with a thirty fourth pick... and take the Seahawks pick at 32... And Tye Simpson goes to the Cardinals”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonApr 23, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “Very end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“So I think Ty Simpson, I think someone trades... Very end of the first round, I think he gets his name called tonight.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- Very end of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksOmar CooperLos Angeles RamsApr 23, 2026
Omar Cooper to be picked at number 13
“Omar Cooper with Sean McVay just feels... fun”
Close · 48Scored 47.88 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Omar Cooper
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 47.88
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqBaltimore RavensApr 23, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 14
“Ravens replace freakish tight end Isaiah Likeley with freakish tight end Kenyon Sadiq.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsKansas City ChiefsApr 23, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 9
“I think the Chiefs just go to arguably best player in the draft, Caleb Downs... At at number nine.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainNew Orleans SaintsApr 23, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8
“And then Reuben Bain Junior goes to the New Orleans Saints at number eight”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksOlaivavega IoaneDetroit LionsApr 23, 2026
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 17
“Lions on the clock. And this pit, Vanga Yawanda just seems like a... Dan Campbell pick.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Olaivavega Ioane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Carnell Tate goes to the Commanders.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksB.J.Arizona CardinalsApr 23, 2026
B.J. to be picked at number 20
“Cardinals with the trade down, they get Falk on an edge with upside”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysApr 23, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 3
“You've got the Cowboys sending three, and a fourth round pick, and the Cardinals get twelfth and twentieth overall pick.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsChicago BearsApr 23, 2026
Chicago Bears to pick at number 16
“you're sending the Jets the twenty fifth pick overall and the sixtieth pick, that's your, DJ Moore pick”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.
- Emmett MatasovskyDepth Chart Calls · Christian IzienMiss · 0Matasovsky says Dobbs is currently leading the backup quarterback race and suggests Christian Izien may be pressed into a starting safety role in Week 1 while Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph rehab.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to open the season as Minnesota's starting quarterback and to be one of the better quarterback values in 2026 fantasy drafts, and he likewise likes Tyler Shough as New Orleans' entrenched starter with an easy schedule.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rob RangMock Draft Picks · Jeremiah SmithMiss · 0Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · Brandon DoughtyMiss · 3Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable.
- Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks · Gennings DunkerHit · 100Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks.
- Brian PeacockMock Draft Picks · Bud ClarkHit · 96In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion.
- Damian ParsonMock Draft Picks · Zachariah BranchHit · 100Locked On's draft analyst laid out where several prospects should land in the upcoming draft: Zachariah Branch as a Day 2/third-round target for the Chargers, Penn State's top offensive lineman gone well before pick 22 (ideally 14 to Baltimore), Akeem Mesador and Malachi Lawrence as first-round edge rushers, Derrick Moore as a Day 2 edge, and Texas's left tackle as a top-10 pick next year.
- Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks · Kyle LouisMiss · 19Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: he sees Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick he'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds.