JP Acosta Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

JP Acosta

JP Acosta appears on the Around the NFL podcast, where he covers the league through tier rankings, power rankings, and preseason wagering discussions. His predictions span the full calendar — from draft positioning and player movement to Super Bowl picks — with a particular eye on teams like the Chargers, Commanders, and Texans.

Writes at Around the NFL (podcast)

Every take from JP Acosta, including the ones still waiting →

Is JP Acosta accurate? Across 141 graded calls in 19 articles, JP Acosta scores 53% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 12.42, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.

53%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

12.42

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

141

Graded calls

across 19 articles. 102 more not yet settled.

A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.

92.54% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Mock Draft Picks69 graded66.45 accuracy
Game Outcome Picks26 graded32.78 accuracy
Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls22 graded0 accuracy

Against the grain

Teams and players where JP Acosta keeps landing outside the room: at least twice, their call sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is their standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.

R Mason Thomas+100
Outside the room in 2 of 2 articles — always higher · when they strayed: 59.9 accuracy (2 settled)

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

Graded calls · 141

4 of 19 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 5.

Acosta takes the Texans to beat the Bills in Week 1 and also likes the Rams over the 49ers, backs the Jaguars over 8.5 wins, picks Denver to win the AFC West and reach the Super Bowl, the Rams as NFC champs and Super Bowl winners, the Packers as a sleeper, and goes Dak Prescott for MVP, Makai Limon for OROY and Sonny Styles for DROY.May 20, 2026
- Houston Texans to beat Bills
  “favorite line is Texans plus one and a half against the Bills... If they can build up to, like, a 10, like, ten three or ten seven lead, they'll probably take that for a win.”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  won:
  BUF
  score:
  36-31
  skill:
  0
  they picked:
  HOU
  season:
  2026
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0
  the naive pick:

In the show's first-round mock draft, JP Acosta made the odd-numbered picks, starting with Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to Vegas and running through Blake Miller to the Patriots at 31.16 graded calls · Apr 20, 2026

Omar Cooper to be picked at number 23
“23 for the Eagles... I'm going Omar Cooper Junior here.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Omar Cooper
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
30
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
23
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95.8
Think this grade is wrong?
Malachi Lawrence to be picked at number 27
“27 with San Francisco forty niners. I have them going Malachi Lawrence Edge from UCF.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Malachi Lawrence
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
23
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
27
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95.8
Blake Miller to be picked at number 31
“31 for the patriots. This feels like a dream scenario for them. I had them going Blake Miller tackle from Clemson.”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.91 against a shuffle’s 50+41.91 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
41.91
player:
Blake Miller
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
54.53
baseline:
50
actual pick:
17
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
54.53
predicted pick:
31
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 9
“I have them going Utah tackle Spencer Fano with the ninth overall pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Spencer Fano
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
9
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
9
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95.8
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 5
“Number five with the Giants, their first pick... but I have Sonny Styles going here. The linebacker out of Ohio State”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.91 against a shuffle’s 50+41.91 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
41.91
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
David Bailey to be picked at number 3
“So I kept David Bailey here at three.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.91 against a shuffle’s 50+41.91 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
41.91
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
91.91
Think this grade is wrong?
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 21
“But Mikai Lemmon falling here at 21 feels like a perfect fit for what the Steelers need in their receiver room.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Makai Lemon
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
20
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
21
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 13
“I think they're going tackle here... and I have them taking Monroe Freeling out of Georgia.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Monroe Freeling
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
19
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
13
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95.8
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 25
“which leads us to '25 with the Chicago Bears... if he does fall here, Dennis Allen's gonna fall over himself drafting him, and that's Auburn Edge, Keldrick Falk.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Keldric Faulk
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
31
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
25
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“if we're gonna start number one overall, this feels like cut and dry. We're putting this in Sharpie. It is Fernando Mendoza, quarterback from Indiana.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 7
“They also throw positional value out the window, and I have them taking Caleb Downs, safety from Ohio State.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95.8
Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 29
“'29 is the Chiefs again... And I had them taking a guy that I think is very similar to Trent McDuffie, and that's Avion Tyrell.”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Avieon Terrell
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
43.91
baseline:
50
actual pick:
48
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
43.91
predicted pick:
29
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 17
“We go to Detroit at 17 and this one feels like a Brad Holmes pick... It's Caden Proctor, tackle from Alabama.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Kadyn Proctor
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
80.52
baseline:
50
actual pick:
12
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
80.52
predicted pick:
17
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 15
“But if they don't go and find a trade up partner, I think a key Mesador would be the pick here.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.91 against a shuffle’s 50+41.91 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
41.91
player:
Akheem Mesidor
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
15
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
91.91
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 11
“They're keeping the guy local. They I have them taking Francis Maitonoa out of Miami.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
Francis Mauigoa
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
11
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95.8
K.C. Concepcion to be picked at number 19
“I have them going KC Concepcion, wide receiver out of text saying them.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.8 against a shuffle’s 50+45.8 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
45.8
player:
K.C. Concepcion
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
80.52
baseline:
50
actual pick:
24
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
80.52
predicted pick:
19
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
95.8

Acosta made the even-numbered picks in the 2026 first-round mock: Arvell Reese to the Jets at 2, Carnell Tate to the Titans at 4, Monroe Freeling to the Browns at 6, David Bailey to the Saints at 8, Caleb Downs to the Bengals at 10, Avieon Terrell to the Cowboys at 12, Vega Ioane to the Ravens at 14, Mekhi Lemon to the Jets at 16, Jermod McCoy to the Vikings at 18, Keldric Faulk to the Cowboys at 20, R Mason Thomas to the Chargers at 22, Jordan Tyson to the Browns at 24, Caden McDonald to the Bills at 26, Blake Miller to the Texans at 28, Zion Young to the Dolphins at 30, and CJ Allen to the Seahawks at 32.17 graded calls · Apr 10, 2026

Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“So I think Arvel Reese is gonna go second overall.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Think this grade is wrong?
Cade McDonald to be picked at number 26
“I haven't gone to Ohio State defensive tackle, Caden McDonald.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Cade McDonald
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
26
weeks left when called:
0
R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 22
“I'm going with R Mason Thomas, Edge out of Oklahoma.”
Close · 46Scored 45.85 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
R Mason Thomas
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
45.85
baseline:
50
actual pick:
40
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
45.85
predicted pick:
22
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Blake Miller to be picked at number 28
“We're going Blake Miller tackle from Clemson.”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 79.46 against a shuffle’s 50+29.46 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
29.46
player:
Blake Miller
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
62.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
17
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
62.09
predicted pick:
28
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
79.46
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16
“I'm going with Mekhi Lemmon... it just makes a lot of sense for him to be the pick there at 16.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Makai Lemon
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
20
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
16
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6
“I have them going Monroe Freeling, offensive tackle from Georgia.”
Close · 57Scored 56.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Monroe Freeling
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
56.94
baseline:
50
actual pick:
19
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
56.94
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
“The Bengals cannot mess this up. It is Caleb Downs from Ohio State.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
10
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 14
“I'm going Vega Yoani, offensive, guard from Penn State.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Olaivavega Ioane
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
14
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 12
“But if they stay, I'm going with Avion Tyrell from Clemson”
Miss · 21Scored 21.02 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Avieon Terrell
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
21.02
baseline:
50
actual pick:
48
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
21.02
predicted pick:
12
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 4
“They go Carnell Tate, wide receiver out of Ohio State.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 24
“24, we have a no brainer from you, JPay. It's Jordan Tyson”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Jordyn Tyson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
50
predicted pick:
24
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
C.J. Allen to be picked at number 32
“Number 32, the team that won the Super Bowl, Seattle Seahawks... I'm going CJ Allen.”
Close · 40Scored 40.26 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
C.J. Allen
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
40.26
baseline:
50
actual pick:
53
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
40.26
predicted pick:
32
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
David Bailey to be picked at number 8
“here, they're just taking best player available, and I haven't going David Bailey”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 79.46 against a shuffle’s 50+29.46 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
29.46
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
8
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
79.46
Makai Lemon to be 1st wide receiver off the board
“He is my favorite receiver in this draft class. He is my wide receiver one”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 12.84+37.16 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 12.84
skill:
37.16
player:
Makai Lemon
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
50
baseline:
12.84
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
3
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Zion Young to be picked at number 30
“I went with Zion Young, Edge from Missouri.”
Close · 52Scored 52.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Zion Young
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
52.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
45
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
52.21
predicted pick:
30
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Think this grade is wrong?
Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 18
“I have been going Jermaine McCoy, corner from Tennessee.”
Miss · 3Scored 2.74 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Jermod McCoy
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
2.74
baseline:
50
actual pick:
101
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
2.74
predicted pick:
18
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 20
“Dallas Cowboys had picked number 20... I've going to Keldrick fault from Auburn”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80.22 against a shuffle’s 50+30.22 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30.22
player:
Keldric Faulk
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
62.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
31
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
62.09
predicted pick:
20
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80.22