JP Acosta

JP Acosta appears on the Around the NFL podcast, where he covers the league through tier rankings, power rankings, and preseason wagering discussions. His predictions span the full calendar — from draft positioning and player movement to Super Bowl picks — with a particular eye on teams like the Chargers, Commanders, and Texans.

Writes at Around the NFL (podcast)

Every take from JP Acosta, including the ones still waiting →

Is JP Acosta accurate? Across 141 graded calls in 19 articles, JP Acosta scores 53% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 12.42, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.

53%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

12.42

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

141

Graded calls

across 19 articles. 102 more not yet settled.

A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.

92.54% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 141

5 of 19 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 2 of 5.

Acosta offers draft-range calls on several prospects: Mike Washington sneaking into the top 100, a cluster of nose tackles going late Day 1/Day 2, Dylan Thieneman rising to Day 1, Arizona safeties on Day 2, Jayshawn Barham as a Day 2/early Day 3 pick, and Jermaine McCoy as the first cornerback drafted with all three top corners going in the first round.5 graded calls · Apr 8, 2026
- Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board
  “but I think McCoy should be the first corner off the board even with that ACL injury”
  Miss · 2Scored 2.21a naive guess scored 21.34-19.13 skill
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2026
  naive:
  naming one of the 27 at random averages 21.34
  skill:
  -19.13
  player:
  Jermod McCoy
  season:
  2026
  zero at:
  credit halves every two places
  accuracy:
  2.21

Acosta gave draft ranges for combine risers — Nussmeier in the third round, Kenyon Sadiq in round one, Chris Johnson in round two — and made picks 2, 4, 6 and every other selection in a post-combine first-round mock draft.20 graded calls · Mar 2, 2026

Rueben Bain to be picked at number 4
“I think this one should be easy for the Titans. They should sprint up to the board and pick Ruben Bayne Junior.”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Rueben Bain
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
62.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
15
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
62.09
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Think this grade is wrong?
C.J. Allen to be picked at number 20
“Man, 20 Dallas... I I'm gonna go CJ Allen.”
Miss · 24Scored 23.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
C.J. Allen
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
23.94
baseline:
50
actual pick:
53
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
23.94
predicted pick:
20
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Think this grade is wrong?
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 12
“Twelve, I'm gonna go Mansoor Delaine. And I I think that the Cowboys love Delaine.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Mansoor Delane
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
12
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“Second overall pick, I think this one's easy too. I'm gonna go Arvell Reese.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
K.C. Concepcion to be picked at number 24
“24, already drafted, Monroe Freeling, if you're the Browns. I think they go wide receiver here, and I'm going to go with Casey Concepcion here over Denzel Boston.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
K.C. Concepcion
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
24
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
24
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Denzel Boston to be picked at number 32
“32 this is this is where it stops for Denzel Boston. I think you just keep him home”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Denzel Boston
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
39
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
32
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Kanye Savic to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“It's not about, like, if he goes first round anymore. It's about how high he goes in the first round... So I'm willing to bet on that in round one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Kanye Savic
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
Jacob Rodriguez to be picked “top 50” (picks 1–50)
“Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't leave the top 50 like we talked about Malachi Lawrence.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Jacob Rodriguez
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
43
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 50 (picks 1–50)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Cade McDonald to be picked at number 30
“30, this is a very interesting pick for the Broncos... So I'm gonna go Caden McDonald here, and I'm beefing up the run defense.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Cade McDonald
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
30
weeks left when called:
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 22
“22, I think this is the furthest he's going to fall. I'm a little Kellogg Falk”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Keldric Faulk
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
67.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
31
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
67.71
predicted pick:
22
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Caleb Banks to be picked at number 18
“18, the Minnesota Vikings... I'm going to go with Caleb Banks here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Caleb Banks
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
18
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
18
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8
“This is a very interesting pick here with New Orleans. Give me Jeremiah Love.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
80.52
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
80.52
predicted pick:
8
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6
“With this pick, I'm gonna go Monroe Freeling from Georgia... The the Browns are gonna draft the the big tall guy at left tackle.”
Close · 57Scored 56.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Monroe Freeling
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
56.94
baseline:
50
actual pick:
19
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
56.94
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
“Lock and stone, Caleb Downs, number 10 to the Bengals.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
10
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 26
“'26, we're building the exciting whites. Dylan Thieneman is going to be their pick here.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Dillon Thieneman
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
25
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
26
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16
“16, we have manifested it... Mikhail Lemmon. Let's let's just go ahead and make this happen.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Makai Lemon
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
20
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
16
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.56
Blake Miller to be picked at number 28
“I think I'm gonna take Blake Miller here Yeah. From tackle from Clemson”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.54 against a shuffle’s 50+35.54 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
35.54
player:
Blake Miller
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
62.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
17
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
62.09
predicted pick:
28
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
85.54
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 14
“14... give me Vega Yoani... I don't think Yoani is gonna leave the, top 20 come April.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.56
player:
Vega Yoani
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
14
weeks left when called:
Chris Johnson to be picked “the second round” (picks 33–64)
“if you're gonna draft him in the second round, which is where I think he's gonna go... he's not going to leave day two”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.54 against a shuffle’s 50+35.54 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
35.54
player:
Chris Johnson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
27
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
the second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Garrett Nussmeier to be picked “the third round” (picks 65–100)
“I think I would lean more towards day two. I think the third round is where about is about where I draft him... I think he's more of a third round guy at this point.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.16 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.54 against a shuffle’s 50+35.54 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
35.54
player:
Garrett Nussmeier
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
0.16
baseline:
50
actual pick:
249
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.16
predicted pick:
the third round (picks 65–100)
weeks left when called:
0

Acosta says Peter Woods and Caleb Banks will be the first two defensive tackles off the board, bets on Christian Miller sneaking into the first round, has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall as the clear QB1 with Ty Simpson QB2, Kenyan Suik as TE1 and Makai Lemmon as his WR1, expects Caleb Lomu to weigh around 308 pounds, and pegs Munro Freeling as a candidate to be the first offensive lineman drafted with Maxi Amator sneaking into the back of round one; he calls Jermaine McCoy a sure-fire CB1 if healthy.10 graded calls · Feb 25, 2026

Monroe Freeling to be 1st offensive lineman off the board
“I actually think Munro Freeling has a really good chance to be the the first offensive lineman off the board come April”
Miss · 18Scored 17.68a naive guess scored 10.8+6.87 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 50 at random averages 10.8
skill:
6.87
player:
Monroe Freeling
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
17.68
baseline:
10.8
position:
offensive lineman
class size:
50
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
6
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board
“I think he is sure fired c b one in this class if everything checks out and he's healthy.”
Miss · 2Scored 2.21a naive guess scored 21.34-19.13 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 27 at random averages 21.34
skill:
-19.13
player:
Jermod McCoy
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
2.21
baseline:
21.34
position:
cornerback
class size:
27
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
12
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Makai Lemon to be 1st wide receiver off the board
“Makai Lemmon is actually my wide receiver one so far in this draft class”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 12.84+37.16 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 12.84
skill:
37.16
player:
Makai Lemon
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
50
baseline:
12.84
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
3
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Kenyon Sadiq to be 1st tight end off the board
“Because we already know Kenyan Suik is tight end one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 15.51+84.49 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 22 at random averages 15.51
skill:
84.49
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
15.51
position:
tight end
class size:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“So I think right now QB two is Ty Simpson”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
skill:
60.3
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
39.7
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“He is the far and away QB one in this draft class.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
skill:
66.92
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
33.08
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Max Iheanachor to be picked “the back of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“So if he runs really well, he tests really well, I could see him sneaking into the back of the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Max Iheanachor
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
21
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
the back of the first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“We all know Fernando Mendoza is going to go number one overall.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Christian Miller to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“So I would bet on Christian Miller because of the youth and because of the explosiveness (asked who would work his way into the first round)”
Miss · 3Scored 2.74a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2019
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Christian Miller
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
2.74
baseline:
50
actual pick:
115
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
2.74
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
“I think he's gonna come in at maybe three hundred and eight pounds, which is really light for an NFL offensive tackle.”
Close · 77Scored 77.26a naive guess scored 79.53-2.27 skill
How this was scored
off:
5
drill:
weight lbs
naive:
the average OT (317.44, from 132 results)
scale:
credit halves every 13.43 — one standard deviation for a OT
skill:
-2.27
player:
Caleb Lomu
result:
313
season:
2025
combine year:
2026
accuracy:
77.26
baseline:
79.53
predicted:
308
sigmas out:
0.37
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:

JP Acosta Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take, page 2 | MissedTakes