JP Acosta· Apr 24, 2026
Acosta's bold prediction for day two is that LSU's Garrett Nussmeier will be the third quarterback selected, landing with the Arizona Cardinals (though not at pick 34). He also projected Arvell Reese to play inside linebacker for the Giants and named R Mason Thomas as a fit for the 49ers at pick 33.
“Garrett Nussmeier is the third quarterback off the board to the Arizona Cardinals.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call, 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 41.3 out of 100, against 41.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Garrett Nussmeier to be 3rd quarterback off the board
“Garrett Nussmeier is the third quarterback off the board to the Arizona Cardinals. I don't think it's gonna be at 34, but I I've said before that the gap between Simpson Nussmeier isn't as big”
Miss · 9Scored 8.84a naive guess scored 33.08-24.24 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
- skill:
- -24.24
- player:
- Garrett Nussmeier
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 8.84
- baseline:
- 33.08
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 10
- predicted order:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 33
“Pick 33 to the niners. I think R Mason Thomas is a first round caliber player.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- R Mason Thomas
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 40
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 33
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Depth Chart CallsArvell ReeseNew York GiantsApr 24, 2026
Arvell Reese to be 1st on the depth chart
“I do I think they're gonna play him at inside linebacker, which is where I think he's going to have the most immediate, like, impact.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Henry McKennaDepth Chart Calls · Carson BeckMiss · 0McKenna predicts Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' starting QB job over J.J. McCarthy, that Minnesota will make the playoffs if Murray cuts out the hero ball, that both QBs will play in 2026, and wonders whether rookie Carson Beck could unseat Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's Week 1 starter.
- Mike TannenbaumTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco.
- Evan SilvaFantasy Defense Calls · San Francisco 49ersMiss · 0In his 2020 fantasy defense/special teams rankings, Silva puts the Steelers first, the 49ers second and the Ravens third, citing pass rush, favorable early schedules and game scripts.
- Chad MillmanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win.
- Simon HunterGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Hunter picked Houston and the Giants as underdog money line plays, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit as favorites, and used Pittsburgh plus the Chargers as his survivor picks for week one.
- Chad MillmanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Millman backed several week one sides outright: Miami to beat the Raiders straight up, the Jets over the Titans, an underdog money line parlay of Houston and the Giants, and a favorites money line parlay of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit. He also stands by his preseason take that Drake Maye is a top-five NFL quarterback.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Ralph VacchianoDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Steven RuizDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier.
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.