Mel Kiper· Mar 21, 2026
Kiper's post-free-agency mock draft, as relayed on the show, assigns specific prospects to specific picks through the top 20, including Fernando Mendoza at No. 2, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5 and CJ Allen to the Cowboys at No. 20.
“This is Mel Kuipers mock draft came out this morning, so it's post free agency with those things considered.”
said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast) · read the original →
20 checkable claims — 19 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 32 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
19 of 20 have settled so far, averaging 73.9 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
positional finish1They said
1What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Carnell Tate
- New Orleans Saints
- Sonny Styles
- Washington Commanders
- David Bailey
- New York Jets
- Mansoor Delane
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Monroe Freeling
- Cleveland Browns
- Caleb Downs
- New York Giants
- Fernando Mendoza
- Jeremiyah Love
- Rueben Bain
- Kansas City Chiefs
- C.J. Allen
- Dallas Cowboys
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- Jermod McCoy
- Kenyon Sadiq
- Spencer Fano
- Baltimore Ravens
- Jordyn Tyson
- Los Angeles Rams
- Dillon Thieneman
- Minnesota Vikings
- Kadyn Proctor
- Detroit Lions
- Ty Simpson
- Francisco Mauigoa
- Miami Dolphins
20 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Carnell Tate to be 1st receiver off the board
“seems to be becoming the kind of consensus first receiver off the board out of Ohio State”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 9.48+90.52 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 9.48
- skill:
- 90.52
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 9.48
- position:
- receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 7
“Number seven, Sonny Styles to the Washington commanders”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 84.62 against a shuffle’s 50+34.62 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsMar 21, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 3
“David Bailey from Texas Tech, the pass rusher to the Jets at number three.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 84.62 against a shuffle’s 50+34.62 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
- Mock Draft PicksMansoor DelaneCincinnati BengalsMar 21, 2026
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 10
“And at number 10, Mansour Delaine goes to the Cincinnati Bengals.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Mansoor Delane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksMonroe FreelingCleveland BrownsMar 21, 2026
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6
“At number six, the Cleveland Browns take Monroe Freeling, the offensive tackle out of Georgia.”
Close · 57Scored 56.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 56.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 56.94
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew York GiantsMar 21, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“New York Giants, Caleb Downs at number five overall, the Ohio State safety”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaMar 21, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 2
“I'm gonna shock you with Fernando Mendoza at number two.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveMar 21, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“Jeremiah Love, I know it breaks our heart. He goes number four.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew Orleans SaintsMar 21, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 9
“Carnell Tate who seems to become... the kind of consensus first receiver off the board out of Ohio State goes to the Saints at number nine.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainKansas City ChiefsMar 21, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8
“It was eight. Kansas City Chiefs take Reuben Bain, the defensive end out of Miami.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksC.J. AllenDallas CowboysMar 21, 2026
C.J. Allen to be picked at number 20
“And Mel Kuiper goes with CJ Allen, linebacker out of Georgia... So CJ Allen at 20”
Miss · 24Scored 23.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- C.J. Allen
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 23.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 53
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 23.94
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksEmmanuel McNeil-WarrenMar 21, 2026
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 19
“19 is Emmanuel McNeil Warren, the safety out of Toledo”
Miss · 18Scored 18.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 18.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 58
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 18.46
- predicted pick:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksJermod McCoyMar 21, 2026
Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12
“And number 12 is Jermoud McCoy, corner, Tennessee”
Miss · 2Scored 2.12 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Jermod McCoy
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 2.12
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 101
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 2.12
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqMar 21, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 15
“15, Kenyan Saddiq, the Oregon tight end.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoBaltimore RavensMar 21, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 14
“The, Baltimore Ravens, Spencer Fanon, the offensive lineman from Utah.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonLos Angeles RamsMar 21, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 13
“13, you get Jordan Tyson to the Rams.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 18
“18, and everybody's doing this one now. Dylan Theeneman is replacing Harrison Smith... In Minnesota.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksKadyn ProctorDetroit LionsMar 21, 2026
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 17
“17, Caden Proctor, gigantic left tackle out of Bama, goes to the Lions.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonNew York JetsMar 21, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 16
“16, the New York Jets, Ty Simpson, the quarterback out of Alabama.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.03 against a shuffle’s 50+31.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.03
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.03
- Mock Draft PicksFrancisco MauigoaMiami DolphinsMar 21, 2026
Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 11
“At number 11 is Francis Maui Noah, the right tackle of the dolphins or right tackle of Miami to the dolphins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanRoster Spot Calls · Jake HaenerMiss · 0Sullivan expects the Giants, thin at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, to elevate Jake Haener from the practice squad for Week 3.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsMiss · 0Grisak argues Wesley Bailey has essentially played his way onto the Rams' roster after a 10-pressure preseason game, suggests Dean Connors and Tim Keenan III could be cut and stashed on the practice squad, and makes a case for Jarquez Hunter making the 53 despite bubble status.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsHit · 100After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsMiss · 0Reviewing the Rams' preseason win, Grisak predicted roster outcomes: Dean Connors likely lands on the practice squad rather than the 53, Xavier Smith's roster chances look poor, Nick Andersen is a strong practice squad candidate, and Mark Redman is likely a practice squad candidate.
- Fox SportsRoster Spot Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100FOX Sports projects Kyle McCord as Miami's backup behind starter Malik Willis, Mitchell Trubisky as Tennessee's primary backup behind starter Cam Ward, and J.J. McCarthy making the Vikings' 53-man roster.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 96Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 100Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.