Mel Kiper· Feb 25, 2026
Kiper's latest mock draft, as described on the show, had Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 to Las Vegas, safety Caleb Downs No. 2 to the Jets, Arbel Reese No. 4 to Tennessee, and edge rusher Ruben Behn to Cincinnati in the first round.
“Zero surprise at the top. Fernando Mendoza can start house hunting in Vegas.”
said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 87.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick1They said
1What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Zero surprise at the top. Fernando Mendoza can start house hunting in Vegas.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 25
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 75
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseTennessee TitansFeb 25, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4
“The other being the aforementioned Reese, number four overall for Tennessee, and new defensive minded head coach, Robert Saleh.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 25
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 75
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew York JetsFeb 25, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2
“Maybe a shock at two, though. A safety Caleb Downs joining Aaron Glenn and the jets.”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 75 against a shuffle’s 50+25 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 25
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 75
- Mock Draft PicksRuben BehnCincinnati BengalsFeb 25, 2026
Ruben Behn to be picked “round one”
“Mel Kiper had Ruben Behn, Edge rusher, going to Cincy in his latest mock draft... Bane, one of 11 front seven players Mel Kiper has going in round one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Bryan DeArdoScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 50He picks the Bengals to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a low-scoring, defensive game, arguing Pittsburgh's struggling offense can't break through against Cincinnati's strong defense.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Johnson said Marvin Harrison Jr. needs a change of scenery in his make-or-break third year, and predicted the Bengals would handle the Steelers' secondary in their upcoming meeting.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0In the winners-only chips segment Parkins backed the Patriots over the Jaguars, the Bengals over the Steelers and the Ravens over the Cowboys in Brazil. He also said New England has a real shot at a top-10 defense and that Kayshon/Romeo Dobbs will be the Patriots' number one target.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.