Nick Wright

Nick Wright covers the NFL with a focus on quarterback evaluations and team rankings. His predictions span game outcomes, draft positions, season win totals, and player awards, with particular attention to the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Chicago Bears. He weighs in on questions like Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen and the trajectory of young quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

Writes at Fox Sports

Every take from Nick Wright, including the ones still waiting →

Is Nick Wright accurate? Across 419 graded calls in 63 articles, Nick Wright scores 57.7% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 6.85, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is an established record: thirty or more graded articles.

57.7%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

6.85

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

419

Graded calls

across 63 articles. 384 more not yet settled.

93.44% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 419

2 of 71 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 10 of 13.

The host (unnamed in the transcript) picks Kansas City to beat Philadelphia in their Week 2 Super Bowl rematch, insists the Chiefs will make the playoffs, restates his preseason picks of Washington to win the NFC East and Green Bay to make the playoffs, and calls Baltimore winning the AFC North a fair assumption.5 graded calls · Sep 11, 2025
- Baltimore Ravens to win the division
  “if we think Baltimore is gonna win that division, which I think is a fair assumption”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  0
  method:
  division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
  they picked:
  BAL
  season:
  2025
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0
  the naive pick:
  BAL

Nick Wright lays out his season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.28 graded calls · Sep 6, 2025

Las Vegas Raiders 21 — New England 20
“This feels to me like twenty one to twenty Raiders.”
Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 38.16+95.1 skill
How this was scored
score:
20-13
skill:
95.1
they picked:
LV
season:
2025
accuracy:
85.71
baseline:
38.16
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
1
Think this grade is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“We've got the Bucks to win the NFC South at Minus one fifteen”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
TB
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals to win
“It's not calling a Cleveland win. I just don't think Cincinnati is gonna dominate the game”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
won:
CIN
score:
17-16
skill:
200
they picked:
CIN
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CLE
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reach the Super Bowl
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
TB
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE,SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six. I'd say that's another safe one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“So we got a division winner. We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
BAL
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE,SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to win
“First pick? We've got Kansas City minus three versus the Chargers... The Chiefs minus three against the Chargers is my first bet of the year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
LAC
score:
16-13
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“We got the Chiefs to win the West of the AFC West, sorry, at minus one fifteen... I'll take the Chiefs over the field.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 21 — Cleveland 17
“twenty one to seventeen Cincinnati is a pretty likely outcome for this game”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 47.55+90.61 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-16
skill:
90.61
they picked:
CIN
season:
2025
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
47.55
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
1
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
4
Think this grade is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins
“we are betting the overs for the following teams with the following Juice Jags over seven and a half minus one twenty five”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
6.25
skill:
0
what happened:
13
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 7 wins
“I think that they are, you know, a seven to eight win team, so I will take under ten and a half for the Niners.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
7.25
skill:
-10
what happened:
12
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
5
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“I think the Jags are going to make the playoffs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
skill:
200
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“and the Bucks minus one seventy. Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 11 wins
“Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these... I think that they are going to win at least eleven games, maybe twelve or thirteen.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 75-70 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
9.25
skill:
-70
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
75
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Chicago Bears to finish with 9 wins
“The Bears over eight and a half at plus one point fifteen. I like everything about the team.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 15+90 skill
How this was scored
team:
CHI
naive:
6.75
skill:
90
what happened:
11
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
15
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to win
“Buffalo getting one at home against Baltimore... Buffalo is too good of a team to be a home dog”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
40-41
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Indianapolis Colts to pick at number 1
“The Colts under seven and a half at minus one thirty. This is my favorite of the unders. I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft.”
Miss · 11Scored 10.51a naive guess scored 18.46-15.9 skill
How this was scored
team:
IND
draft:
2026
naive:
they picked 14 the year before
skill:
-15.9
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
10.51
baseline:
18.46
actual pick:
53
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Atlanta Falcons to finish with 8 wins
“And Atlanta over seven and a half at minus one forty”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
naive:
8.25
skill:
10
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs
“Raiders plus three forty for a half unit ... Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“Jags plus one eighty, Chiefs minus three eighty ... Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins
“The Raiders over six and a half at minus one forty five.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
6.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
3
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
35
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
“I think the Chiefs are the best team in football. I think the Chargers are around the fourteenth best team in football.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Miami Dolphins to win
“I think Miami wins the game outright... I'll take Miami plus one at Indy”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
won:
IND
score:
8-33
skill:
-200
they picked:
MIA
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
IND
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“Giant Giants five to one for a quarter unit ... Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed
“I think the Bucks have a real shot to be the one seed in the NFC”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
TB
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
checked as:
the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
actual tier:
missed the playoffs
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (host)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
1
claimed tier:
bye
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders to win
“I think the Raiders win this game. And I'm getting two and a half points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
won:
LV
score:
20-13
skill:
200
they picked:
LV
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“Kansas City defeat Tampa Bay at plus eleven thousand.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?

Nick Wright Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take, page 10 | MissedTakes