Nick Wright· Sep 6, 2025
Nick Wright lays out his season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.
“Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
30 checkable claims — 7 season win totals, 5 game outcome picks, 5 playoff picks, 4 division winners, 2 conference champions, 2 score predictions, 1 power ranking, 1 seeding, byes and home field, 1 super bowl pick, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
28 of 30 have settled so far, averaging 28.9 out of 100, against 26 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
30 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 6, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“We've got the Bucks to win the NFC South at Minus one fifteen”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsSep 6, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Cleveland
“It's not calling a Cleveland win. I just don't think Cincinnati is gonna dominate the game”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 17-16
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 6, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers
“First pick? We've got Kansas City minus three versus the Chargers... The Chiefs minus three against the Chargers is my first bet of the year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAC
- score:
- 16-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Conference ChampionsTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 6, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reach the Super Bowl
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2025
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six. I'd say that's another safe one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed
“I think the Bucks have a real shot to be the one seed in the NFC”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- missed the playoffs
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensSep 6, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“So we got a division winner. We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsSep 6, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals 21 — Cleveland 17
“twenty one to seventeen Cincinnati is a pretty likely outcome for this game”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 47.55+90.61 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-16
- skill:
- 90.61
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 47.55
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsSep 6, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersKansas City ChiefsSep 6, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“We got the Chiefs to win the West of the AFC West, sorry, at minus one fifteen... I'll take the Chiefs over the field.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Playoff PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 6, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“I think the Jags are going to make the playoffs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsSan Francisco 49ersSep 6, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 7 wins
“I think that they are, you know, a seven to eight win team, so I will take under ten and a half for the Niners.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsJacksonville JaguarsSep 6, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins
“we are betting the overs for the following teams with the following Juice Jags over seven and a half minus one twenty five”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 6, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“and the Bucks minus one seventy. Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 6, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 11 wins
“Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these... I think that they are going to win at least eleven games, maybe twelve or thirteen.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 75-70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -70
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 6, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to beat New England
“I think the Raiders win this game. And I'm getting two and a half points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 20-13
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsChicago BearsSep 6, 2025
Chicago Bears to finish with 9 wins
“The Bears over eight and a half at plus one point fifteen. I like everything about the team.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 15+90 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 90
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 15
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Baltimore
“Buffalo getting one at home against Baltimore... Buffalo is too good of a team to be a home dog”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 40-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Team Draft Slot CallsIndianapolis ColtsSep 6, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to pick at number 1
“The Colts under seven and a half at minus one thirty. This is my favorite of the unders. I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft.”
Miss · 11Scored 10.51a naive guess scored 18.46-15.9 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 14 the year before
- skill:
- -15.9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 10.51
- baseline:
- 18.46
- actual pick:
- 53
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsAtlanta FalconsSep 6, 2025
Atlanta Falcons to finish with 8 wins
“And Atlanta over seven and a half at minus one forty”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- ATL
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 95
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 6, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs
“Raiders plus three forty for a half unit ... Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 6, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“Jags plus one eighty, Chiefs minus three eighty ... Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLas Vegas RaidersSep 6, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins
“The Raiders over six and a half at minus one forty five.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 6, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“Kansas City defeat Tampa Bay at plus eleven thousand.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Power RankingsSep 6, 2025
“I think the Chiefs are the best team in football. I think the Chargers are around the fourteenth best team in football.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksMiami DolphinsSep 6, 2025
Miami Dolphins to beat Colts
“I think Miami wins the game outright... I'll take Miami plus one at Indy”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 8-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksNew York GiantsSep 6, 2025
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“Giant Giants five to one for a quarter unit ... Those are make playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Score PredictionsLas Vegas RaidersSep 6, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders 21 — New England 20
“This feels to me like twenty one to twenty Raiders.”
Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 38.16+95.1 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 20-13
- skill:
- 95.1
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 85.71
- baseline:
- 38.16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 1
- Surprise Team CallsLas Vegas RaidersSep 6, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“They're the team everyone thinks it's going to be bad that I think it's going to be good.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsSep 6, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with ? wins
“I have Kansas City. You just bet the Chiefs over every single year.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Mike TannenbaumTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Nick ShookPosition Order Calls · Olaivavega IoaneMiss · 35Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.