What's Wright with Nick Wright · Sep 6, 2025

Nick Wright lays out his season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.

“Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

30 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Playoff PicksSep 6, 2025
“I think the Jags are going to make the playoffs.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
skill:
200
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 6, 2025
“I think that they are, you know, a seven to eight win team, so I will take under ten and a half for the Niners.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
7.25
skill:
-10
what happened:
12
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
5
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 6, 2025
“we are betting the overs for the following teams with the following Juice Jags over seven and a half minus one twenty five”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
6.25
skill:
0
what happened:
13
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 6, 2025
“and the Bucks minus one seventy. Those are make playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 6, 2025
“Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these... I think that they are going to win at least eleven games, maybe twelve or thirteen.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 75-70 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
9.25
skill:
-70
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
75
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 6, 2025
“I think the Raiders win this game. And I'm getting two and a half points.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
won:
LV
score:
20-13
skill:
200
they picked:
LV
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 6, 2025
“The Bears over eight and a half at plus one point fifteen. I like everything about the team.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 15+90 skill
How this was scored
team:
CHI
naive:
6.75
skill:
90
what happened:
11
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
15
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 6, 2025
“Buffalo getting one at home against Baltimore... Buffalo is too good of a team to be a home dog”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
40-41
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Team Draft Slot CallsSep 6, 2025
“The Colts under seven and a half at minus one thirty. This is my favorite of the unders. I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft.”
Scored 10.51a naive guess scored 18.46-15.9 skill
How this was scored
team:
IND
draft:
2026
naive:
they picked 14 the year before
skill:
-15.9
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
10.51
baseline:
18.46
actual pick:
53
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 6, 2025
“And Atlanta over seven and a half at minus one forty”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
naive:
8.25
skill:
10
what happened:
8
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 6, 2025
“Raiders plus three forty for a half unit ... Those are make playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 6, 2025
“Jags plus one eighty, Chiefs minus three eighty ... Those are make playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 6, 2025
“The Raiders over six and a half at minus one forty five.”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 35-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
6.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
3
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
35
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl PicksSep 6, 2025
“Kansas City defeat Tampa Bay at plus eleven thousand.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Power RankingsSep 6, 2025
“I think the Chiefs are the best team in football. I think the Chargers are around the fourteenth best team in football.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 6, 2025
“I think Miami wins the game outright... I'll take Miami plus one at Indy”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
won:
IND
score:
8-33
skill:
-200
they picked:
MIA
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive pick:
IND
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 6, 2025
“Giant Giants five to one for a quarter unit ... Those are make playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Score PredictionsSep 6, 2025
“This feels to me like twenty one to twenty Raiders.”
Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 38.16+95.1 skill
How this was scored
score:
20-13
skill:
95.1
they picked:
LV
season:
2025
accuracy:
85.71
baseline:
38.16
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 6, 2025
“It's not calling a Cleveland win. I just don't think Cincinnati is gonna dominate the game”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team CallsSep 6, 2025
“They're the team everyone thinks it's going to be bad that I think it's going to be good.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Conference ChampionsSep 6, 2025
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 6, 2025
“First pick? We've got Kansas City minus three versus the Chargers... The Chiefs minus three against the Chargers is my first bet of the year”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersSep 6, 2025
“So we got a division winner. We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersSep 6, 2025
“We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six. I'd say that's another safe one.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersSep 6, 2025
“We've got the Bucks to win the NFC South at Minus one fifteen”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Conference ChampionsSep 6, 2025
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Seeding, Byes and Home FieldSep 6, 2025
“I think the Bucks have a real shot to be the one seed in the NFC”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Score PredictionsSep 6, 2025
“twenty one to seventeen Cincinnati is a pretty likely outcome for this game”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersSep 6, 2025
“We got the Chiefs to win the West of the AFC West, sorry, at minus one fifteen... I'll take the Chiefs over the field.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 6, 2025
“I have Kansas City. You just bet the Chiefs over every single year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?