In a 20-pick draft of the best running backs for 2025, Nick Shook used his ten selections (overall picks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19) on Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, De'Von Achane and David Montgomery. He also predicted Derrick Henry would top 1,000 rushing yards again as Baltimore's bell cow.

3 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Depth Chart CallsDerrick HenryBaltimore RavensJun 23, 2025

  “He's going to go over one thousand yards, and it's going to be a bell cow back for this team.”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
  How this was scored

  club:

  BAL

  skill:

  0

  player:

  Derrick Henry

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  100

  position:

  RB

  naive slot:

  1

  actual slot:

  1

  difficulty:

  2

  measured by:

  rushing yards

  naive basis:

  where he sat last season

  weeks in the season:

  18

  predicted slot:

  1

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?

• Player Season NumbersDerrick HenryBaltimore RavensJun 23, 2025

  “He's going to go over one thousand yards, and it's going to be a bell cow back for this team.”

  Scored 25.39a naive guess scored 44.19-37.59 skill
  How this was scored

  naive:

  1149.89

  skill:

  -37.59

  what happened:

  1595

  player:

  Derrick Henry

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  25.39

  baseline:

  44.19

  predicted:

  1000

  statistic:

  rushing_yards

  difficulty:

  2

  last season:

  1921

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  18

  position average:

  378.78

  zero at percent out:

  50

  Think this is wrong?

• Top Player ListsJun 23, 2025

  “Nick Shook's picks in the running back draft: 1st Saquon Barkley, 3rd Derrick Henry, 5th Josh Jacobs, 7th Christian McCaffrey, 9th James Cook, 11th Jonathan Taylor, 13th Alvin Kamara, 15th Joe Mixon, 17th De'Von Achane, 19th David Montgomery.”

  Scored 60a naive guess scored 50+20 skill
  How this was scored

  naive:

  a coin-flip ordering scores 50

  skill:

  20

  placed:

  9

  season:

  2025

  players:

  10

  accuracy:

  60

  baseline:

  50

  by position:

  RB 9: 60

  difficulty:

  2

  weeks in the season:

  18

  could not place:

  1

  weeks left when called:

  18

  Think this is wrong?