Clarence Hill· Jan 16, 2026
Clarence picked Buffalo over Denver, Seattle over San Francisco, and New England over Houston, in each case siding with the better quarterback. He also insisted Jake Ferguson will no longer be on the Cowboys in 2027.
“I picked Buffalo. I picked a better quarterback.”
said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Jake Ferguson to move to Dallas Cowboys
“Tight end, Ferg would not be on the team in 2027. I would be standing on the table... Will not be here in 2027.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jake Ferguson
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- DAL
- was with:
- DAL
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- DAL
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win
“I picked Seattle... So I think that that the Seattle defense... They're gonna get some turnovers from the Fortnite as quarterback.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 6-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 16, 2026
Buffalo Bills to win
“Oh, you picked Buffalo. I did pick Buffalo. Because I picked Buffalo. I picked a better quarterback.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 16, 2026
New England Patriots to win
“Took New England. I drew I took the better quarterback.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Michael HanichDepth Chart Calls · Bud ClarkMiss · 0Hanich suggests Nick Emmanwori may miss Week 1 after ankle surgery, and that Noah Igbinoghene is making a strong case to be the Seahawks' Week 1 starting nickel, with Bud Clark also possibly stepping into a starting role if Emmanwori is out.
- Garrett PodellScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysMiss · 36Previewing the Week 1 'Sunday Night Football' game, the piece picks Dallas to beat New York comfortably, arguing Prescott, Lamb and Pickens will exploit the Giants' cornerbacks while the Cowboys' defense contains Jaxson Dart.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Chris BroussardScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysMiss · 29Broussard took Tampa Bay over Cincinnati as his upset alert, predicted a 34-17 Cowboys win over the Giants, and had picked Dak Prescott as MVP.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.