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Tyler Sullivan· Sep 10, 2026

An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.

“Below, we'll comb through the Week 1 slate and identify five favorites that could be on upset alert.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 10, 2026

    Denver Broncos to win

    “Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs ... However, I expect their defense to quickly remind folks of its dominance as we wrap up Week 1 on Monday night.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    10-31
    skill:
    -200
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 10, 2026

    New York Jets to win

    “New York Jets (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans ... If Ward is just serviceable in the opener ... New York will have a puncher's chance.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NYJ
    score:
    23-10
    skill:
    200
    they picked:
    NYJ
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    TEN
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 10, 2026

    Houston Texans to win

    “Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1.5) ... If the Texans can generate movement on the ground and the defense continues to give Allen fits, they are live.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersSep 10, 2026

    Carolina Panthers to win

    “Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+3) ... If those issues rear their head, that's how Carolina pulls off the upset.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    59-37
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CAR
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 10, 2026

    San Francisco 49ers to win

    “San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams ... But don't sleep on the Niners either. ... Kyle Shanahan has also typically gotten his team up for the opener, winning three-straight Week 1 contests entering 2026.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    27-7
    skill:
    200
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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