Craig Stout· Mar 26, 2026
Craig says Arvell Reese is a top-five pick in this draft class but will not be a Micah Parsons-level player, and he views both Mekhi Lemmon and Carnell Tate as top-10 selections.
“Arvel Reese is a very good player. He is a top five pick in this draft.”
said on air, transcribed by us · KC Sports Network (podcast) · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 21.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall picka top five pick in this draft (picks 1–5)They said
undraftedWhat happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseMar 26, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked “a top five pick in this draft” (picks 1–5)
“Arvel Reese is a very good player. He is a top five pick in this draft.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Arvel Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- a top five pick in this draft (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonMar 26, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
“Both are, you know, projected top 10 picks here... whereas McKay Lemmon's more of your shiftier slot type guy... two guys within the top 10 here”
Close · 65Scored 64.84a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 64.84
- predicted pick:
- projected top 10 picks (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksColonel TateMar 26, 2026
Colonel Tate to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
“Both are, you know, projected top 10 picks here. But Colonel Tate is a different style of wide receiver... two guys within the top 10 here”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Colonel Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- projected top 10 picks (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Arvell ReeseHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Makai LemonHit · 100Kerr's updated 53-man roster projection for the Eagles after eight training camp practices, naming which players make the team at each position plus depth-chart placements like Wicks as WR2, Mundt as TE2, Kendall as third guard, Bell as third tackle, and Epps/Carter battling to start at safety.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Makai LemonHit · 100Kerr judges Eagles camp overreactions: he doubts Jalen Hurts reaches 30 touchdown passes, thinks only one of Darius Cooper or Johnny Wilson makes the 53 (with Cooper leading the WR5 race), and expects Dallas Goedert to post double-digit receiving touchdowns again.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Makai LemonMiss · 0Kerr ranks the Eagles' 2025 draft picks by cut risk, predicting seventh-rounders Keyshawn James-Newby and Cole Wisniewski land on the practice squad, while Cole Payton, Uar Bernard, Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers and Markel Bell make the 53. He also says Lemon starts Week 1 and Bell is the right tackle of the future.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Makai LemonHit · 100Kerr's third Eagles 53-man roster projection names the players he expects to make the team at each position, with Cole Payton, Elijah Moore, Johnny Wilson, Gabe Hall and Rocco Underwood left off; he also predicts Underwood is exposed to waivers and returns to the practice squad, Deontae Lawson lands on the practice squad, and Eli Stowers is the TE3.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Makai LemonHit · 100In his second Eagles 53-man roster projection nine practices into training camp, Kerr names 35 roster locks and eight more players likely to make the team, plus depth-chart calls at backup quarterback, RB3, No. 3 guard and backup center.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.