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James Foster· Apr 1, 2025

Foster argues Penn State safety Kevin Winston Jr. is undervalued, ranking him 37th on his big board and expecting him to be drafted within the top 50 picks despite being covered as a Day 3 prospect.

Despite receiving the coverage of a Day 3 pick, I expect him to be selected in the top 50.

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 43.9 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
Day 3 (picks 101–257)They said
82What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Kevin Winston Jr. to be picked at number 50

    Despite receiving the coverage of a Day 3 pick, I expect him to be selected in the top 50.

    Close · 44Scored 43.91a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Kevin Winston Jr.
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    43.91
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    82
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    43.91
    predicted pick:
    Day 3 (picks 101–257)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

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