Nick Baumgardner · Feb 28, 2026

The Athletic's draft analyst assessed several 2026 prospects: Ruben Bain as a top-15/20 rather than top-5/10 prospect, Kenyon Sadiq as a clear first-round tight end going anywhere from 15 into the 20s, Jeremiah Love as a top-five player on his board who fits the Chiefs in the top ten, Ty Simpson as a possible late-first-round pick, Fernando Mendoza as the class's only certain first-round QB, and Garrett Nussmeyer as QB3.

“I think he's more of a maybe a top fifteen, top twenty prospect.”

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9 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Position Order Calls Garrett NussmeierFeb 28, 2026
Garrett Nussmeier to be 3rd quarterback off the board
“I think he's probably QB three right now”
Miss · 9Scored 8.84a naive guess scored 33.08-24.24 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
skill:
-24.24
player:
Garrett Nussmeier
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
8.84
baseline:
33.08
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
10
predicted order:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Jeremiyah LoveFeb 28, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “the Chiefs there in the top ten” (picks 1–10)
“the team that makes the most sense for me for him as the Chiefs there in the top ten. They desperately need a running back.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
the Chiefs there in the top ten (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Rueben Bain Miami DolphinsFeb 28, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked “a top fifteen, top twenty prospect” (picks 1–15)
“I just don't think what what the media, you know, has sort of viewed him as as maybe a top five or a top ten prospect. I don't think the NFL views him that way. I think he's more of a maybe a top fifteen, top twenty prospect.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Rueben Bain
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
15
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
a top fifteen, top twenty prospect (picks 1–15)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Ty SimpsonFeb 28, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “could be a first round pick somewhere ... late twenties” (picks 1–32)
“I do think he'll he could be a first round pick somewhere where along the where where Jackson Dart ended up last year, like late twenties.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
could be a first round pick somewhere ... late twenties (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Kenyon SadiqFeb 28, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “certainly a first round pick ... anywhere from fifteen all the way down into the twenties” (picks 1–32)
“I think he's certainly a first round pick. I just don't know where... it could be anywhere, you know, from fifteen all the way down into the twenties.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
16
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
certainly a first round pick ... anywhere from fifteen all the way down into the twenties (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Fernando MendozaFeb 28, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“Like Mendoza is clearly number one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
skill:
66.92
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
33.08
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Fernando MendozaFeb 28, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “first round quarterback” (picks 1–32)
“He's the only guy in this class that we would stamp and say first round quarterback, you know, no question about it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round quarterback (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Cole PaytonFeb 28, 2026
Cole Payton to be picked “pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty” (picks 1–32)
“Some scouts absolutely love him, you know, and have talked about him maybe as a pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty anyway.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.18a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Cole Payton
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
0.18
baseline:
50
actual pick:
178
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.18
predicted pick:
pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Kenyon SadiqFeb 28, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be 1st tight end off the board
“And I think Sadique's easily the best one in this class.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 15.51+84.49 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 22 at random averages 15.51
skill:
84.49
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
15.51
position:
tight end
class size:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?