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Nick Baumgardner· Feb 28, 2026

The Athletic's draft analyst assessed several 2026 prospects: Ruben Bain as a top-15/20 rather than top-5/10 prospect, Kenyon Sadiq as a clear first-round tight end going anywhere from 15 into the 20s, Jeremiah Love as a top-five player on his board who fits the Chiefs in the top ten, Ty Simpson as a possible late-first-round pick, Fernando Mendoza as the class's only certain first-round QB, and Garrett Nussmeyer as QB3.

“I think he's more of a maybe a top fifteen, top twenty prospect.”

said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast) · read the original →

9 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 3 position order calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 9 have settled, averaging 78.8 out of 100, against 42.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
3They said
10What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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Who this take is about

9 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Position Order CallsGarrett NussmeierFeb 28, 2026

    Garrett Nussmeier to be 3rd quarterback off the board

    “I think he's probably QB three right now”

    Miss · 9Scored 8.84a naive guess scored 33.08-24.24 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
    skill:
    -24.24
    player:
    Garrett Nussmeier
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    8.84
    baseline:
    33.08
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    10
    predicted order:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveFeb 28, 2026

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked “the Chiefs there in the top ten” (picks 1–10)

    “the team that makes the most sense for me for him as the Chiefs there in the top ten. They desperately need a running back.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Jeremiyah Love
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    the Chiefs there in the top ten (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksRueben BainMiami DolphinsFeb 28, 2026

    Rueben Bain to be picked “a top fifteen, top twenty prospect” (picks 1–15)

    “I just don't think what what the media, you know, has sort of viewed him as as maybe a top five or a top ten prospect. I don't think the NFL views him that way. I think he's more of a maybe a top fifteen, top twenty prospect.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Rueben Bain
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    15
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    a top fifteen, top twenty prospect (picks 1–15)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonFeb 28, 2026

    Ty Simpson to be picked “could be a first round pick somewhere ... late twenties” (picks 1–32)

    “I do think he'll he could be a first round pick somewhere where along the where where Jackson Dart ended up last year, like late twenties.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    could be a first round pick somewhere ... late twenties (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqFeb 28, 2026

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “certainly a first round pick ... anywhere from fifteen all the way down into the twenties” (picks 1–32)

    “I think he's certainly a first round pick. I just don't know where... it could be anywhere, you know, from fifteen all the way down into the twenties.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    certainly a first round pick ... anywhere from fifteen all the way down into the twenties (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsFernando MendozaFeb 28, 2026

    Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board

    “Like Mendoza is clearly number one.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
    skill:
    66.92
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    33.08
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    1
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaFeb 28, 2026

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked “first round quarterback” (picks 1–32)

    “He's the only guy in this class that we would stamp and say first round quarterback, you know, no question about it.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round quarterback (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksCole PaytonFeb 28, 2026

    Cole Payton to be picked “pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty” (picks 1–32)

    “Some scouts absolutely love him, you know, and have talked about him maybe as a pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty anyway.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0.18a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Cole Payton
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    0.18
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    178
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0.18
    predicted pick:
    pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsKenyon SadiqFeb 28, 2026

    Kenyon Sadiq to be 1st tight end off the board

    “And I think Sadique's easily the best one in this class.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 15.51+84.49 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 22 at random averages 15.51
    skill:
    84.49
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    15.51
    position:
    tight end
    class size:
    22
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    1
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

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