Pat Gustavson· Jan 6, 2026
Gustafson picked the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, the Rams and Bears in the NFC, the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, and the Patriots to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. His awards slate included Stafford for MVP, Puka for OPOY and Liam Cohen for Coach of the Year.
“I do have the Patriots over the Bears in the Super Bowl, and I'm really not happy about it.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast) · read the original →
20 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks, 5 award picks, 2 coach award picks, 2 conference champions, 1 pro bowl and all-pro call and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 20 have settled, averaging 50.8 out of 100, against 21.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
20 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Charles Cross to make Protector of the Year
“I'm gonna go Charles Cross.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- made:
- no
- naive:
- he did not make it the year before, so the naive pick said no
- skill:
- -100
- player:
- Charles Cross
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- selection:
- protector_of_the_year
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks
“Give me the Rams over the Seahawks here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
“I think the Bears are just gonna and they've already beaten them.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Conference ChampionsChicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl
“Give me the fucking Chicago Bengals. Ben Johnson takes the team to the promised land in year one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Jags
“The Patriots. We're picking the Patriots.”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 22.92+43.75 skillHow this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 43.75
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 22.92
- opponent:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- picked won aplayoff game:
- yes
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Panthers
“I don't care. I'm going with the Rams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Conference ChampionsNew England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
“And give me New England. I will pick the boys... So will I.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Eagles
“And then my other matchup is the Bears and the Eagles. ... Give me give me the bears.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 24-15
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsJan 6, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bills
“And I can see them throwing up a dud here against the hottest team in football right now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 27-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Chargers
“I like the Patriots. Kinda definitively here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 3-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansJan 6, 2026
Houston Texans to beat Steelers
“I I I like Houston here. Steelers aren't very good and the Texans are red hot.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 30-6
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Coach Award PicksJan 6, 2026
Vance Joseph to win Assistant Coach of the Year
“I'm gonna go with Vance Joseph.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- assistant_coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Vance Joseph
- naive:
- we hold no 2024 winner, so the naive pick scored 0
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Josh McDaniels
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosJan 6, 2026
Denver Broncos to beat Houston
“Give me Denver to escape with one game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 18-15
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Coach Award PicksJan 6, 2026
Liam Cohen to win Coach of the Year
“I think Liam Cohen went into a worse situation and turned it around more. So I'll go with our boy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Liam Coen
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Super Bowl PicksNew England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl
“I do have the Patriots over the Bears in the Super Bowl, and I'm really not happy about it.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Carson Schwesinger to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“But I I gotta go Carson Schwesinger here, another Brown.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jared Verse, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Carson Schwesinger
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Carson Schwesinger
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksMatthew StaffordLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford to win MVP
“Yes. I agree. I I'd say I think Stafford locked it up this week.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksDrake MayeNew England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
Drake Maye to win MVP
“I will market Drake May will win multiple MVPs in his career.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksPuka NacuaLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Puka Nacua to win Offensive Player of the Year
“I think the answer to these three is Puka.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Puka Nacua
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksTyler ShoughNew Orleans SaintsJan 6, 2026
Tyler Shough to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“I'll go Tyler Shuck. ... So I will go Shakir.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsMiss · 0Grisak argues Wesley Bailey has essentially played his way onto the Rams' roster after a 10-pressure preseason game, suggests Dean Connors and Tim Keenan III could be cut and stashed on the practice squad, and makes a case for Jarquez Hunter making the 53 despite bubble status.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsHit · 100After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsMiss · 0Reviewing the Rams' preseason win, Grisak predicted roster outcomes: Dean Connors likely lands on the practice squad rather than the 53, Xavier Smith's roster chances look poor, Nick Andersen is a strong practice squad candidate, and Mark Redman is likely a practice squad candidate.
- Chad JensenRoster Spot Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0Jensen expects the Broncos to sign fullback Adam Prentice to the active 53-man roster early the following week rather than risk losing him on waivers, with a corresponding cut coming Monday. He also anticipates Denver will clear a roster spot for Jonah Coleman once the running back's four-game IR stint ends around Week 7.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Ameer AbdullahHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Bill HuberGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Huber forecasts the Packers starting 3-4 through seven games — losing at Minnesota and Tampa Bay, beating the Jets and Falcons, losing to the Bears — and finishing the season with about eight wins.
- Patricia TrainaGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0In her weekly Giants mailbag, Traina said the Giants would beat the Rams if Los Angeles didn't play its best, predicted Aaron Donald wouldn't play a full game Monday night, and said she doesn't expect Paulson Adebo to still be with the Giants in 2027.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.
- Garrett PodellGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0In a Week 2 bold-predictions piece, CBS Sports predicts the Giants will upset the Rams on Monday Night Football at SoFi Stadium, dropping Los Angeles to 0-2, and that Colts quarterback Daniel Jones will throw multiple touchdowns on Sunday Night Football at Kansas City.
- Seth WalderGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Picks the Panthers to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.