Pat Gustavson · Jan 6, 2026

Gustafson picked the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, the Rams and Bears in the NFC, the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, and the Patriots to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. His awards slate included Stafford for MVP, Puka for OPOY and Liam Cohen for Coach of the Year.

“I do have the Patriots over the Bears in the Super Bowl, and I'm really not happy about it.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast) · read the original →

22 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Game Outcome Picks Chicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to win
“And then my other matchup is the Bears and the Eagles. ... Give me give me the bears.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
won:
CHI
score:
24-15
skill:
100
they picked:
CHI
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Jacksonville JaguarsJan 6, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
“And I can see them throwing up a dud here against the hottest team in football right now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
27-24
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks New England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to win
“I like the Patriots. Kinda definitively here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
3-16
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Houston TexansJan 6, 2026
Houston Texans to win
“I I I like Houston here. Steelers aren't very good and the Texans are red hot.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
30-6
skill:
100
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Coach Award PicksJan 6, 2026
Vance Joseph to win Assistant Coach of the Year
“I'm gonna go with Vance Joseph.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
assistant_coach_of_the_year
coach:
Vance Joseph
naive:
we hold no 2024 winner, so the naive pick scored 0
skill:
0
season:
2025
winner:
Josh McDaniels
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Denver BroncosJan 6, 2026
Denver Broncos to win
“Give me Denver to escape with one game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
18-15
skill:
100
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Coach Award PicksJan 6, 2026
Liam Cohen to win Coach of the Year
“I think Liam Cohen went into a worse situation and turned it around more. So I'll go with our boy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
coach_of_the_year
coach:
Liam Coen
naive:
the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
skill:
0
season:
2025
winner:
Mike Vrabel
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl Picks New England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl
“I do have the Patriots over the Bears in the Super Bowl, and I'm really not happy about it.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skill
How this was scored
skill:
50
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Carson Schwesinger Cleveland BrownsJan 6, 2026
Carson Schwesinger to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“But I I gotta go Carson Schwesinger here, another Brown.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Jared Verse, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Carson Schwesinger
season:
2025
winner:
Carson Schwesinger
correct:
true
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Matthew Stafford Los Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford to win MVP
“Yes. I agree. I I'd say I think Stafford locked it up this week.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Matthew Stafford
season:
2025
winner:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
true
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Drake Maye New England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
Drake Maye to win MVP
“I will market Drake May will win multiple MVPs in his career.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2025
winner:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Puka Nacua Los Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Puka Nacua to win Offensive Player of the Year
“I think the answer to these three is Puka.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Puka Nacua
season:
2025
winner:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Tyler Shough New Orleans SaintsJan 6, 2026
Tyler Shough to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“I'll go Tyler Shuck. ... So I will go Shakir.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Tyler Shough
season:
2025
winner:
Tetairoa McMillan
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to win
“Give me the Rams over the Seahawks here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to win
“I don't care. I'm going with the Rams.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks New England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to win
“The Patriots. We're picking the Patriots.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Conference Champions Chicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl
“Give me the fucking Chicago Bengals. Ben Johnson takes the team to the promised land in year one.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Conference Champions New England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
“And give me New England. I will pick the boys... So will I.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls Charles Cross Seattle SeahawksJan 6, 2026
Charles Cross to make Protector of the Year
“I'm gonna go Charles Cross.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing CallsJan 6, 2026
Kevin Stefanski to move
“Kevin Stefanski will be a head coach next year, whether it's in Tennessee, whether it's in Atlanta, whether it's in Las Vegas, whether it's in New York.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks San Francisco 49ersJan 6, 2026
San Francisco 49ers to win
“I'm gonna go with the Eagles because I I just think that if this is sort of more of a lower scoring slugfest game, I think Philly comes out on top of it.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Chicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to win
“I think the Bears are just gonna and they've already beaten them.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?