Ross Tucker· Aug 1, 2023

Tucker ranks all 32 NFL offensive lines entering the 2023 season in tiers, with the Eagles first and the Titans last. He also expects Cam Jurgens to start at right guard for Philadelphia, Halapoulivaati Vaitai to start at right guard for Detroit, Riley Reiff at right tackle in New England, rookie Juice Scruggs at center in Houston, rookie Broderick Jones at left tackle in Pittsburgh, Darnell Wright at right tackle in Chicago, Bryce Young to start at QB in Carolina, Colton McKivitz at right tackle in San Francisco, John Michael Schmitz at center for the Giants, and Sam Cosmi moving to right guard in Washington. He also thinks the Chargers could be viewed as an elite line by year's end.

“I broke down all 32 offensive lines into five different categories to give you a better sense of where each team stacks up.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Nov 29, 2023) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

18 checkable claims — 17 depth chart calls and 1 position group ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 31 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

16 of 18 have settled so far, averaging 94.3 out of 100, against 91.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

1They said

1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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18 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Depth Chart Calls Sam Cosmi Washington CommandersAug 1, 2023
Sam Cosmi to be 1st on the depth chart
“I'm skeptical of Sam Cosmi's move to right guard”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 83.33+33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
WAS
skill:
33.33
player:
Sam Cosmi
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
83.33
position:
G
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Shaq Mason Houston TexansAug 1, 2023
Shaq Mason to be 1st on the depth chart
“they should get solid play out of Shaq Mason at right guard”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
HOU
skill:
0
player:
Shaq Mason
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
G
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Evan Neal New York GiantsAug 1, 2023
Evan Neal to be 1st on the depth chart
“the expectation is Evan Neal will make an Andrew Thomas–like improvement at right tackle”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
-16.67
player:
Evan Neal
season:
2023
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
T
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Darnell Wright Chicago BearsAug 1, 2023
Darnell Wright to be 1st on the depth chart
“The additions of free agent Nate Davis and rookie right tackle Darnell Wright on the right side”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
16.67
player:
Darnell Wright
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
T
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
special-teams snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Matthew Bergeron Atlanta FalconsAug 1, 2023
Matthew Bergeron to be 1st on the depth chart
“Now, they add another bruiser in rookie left guard Matthew Bergeron to the mix.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
ATL
skill:
16.67
player:
Matthew Bergeron
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
G
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
special-teams snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Colton McKivitz San Francisco 49ersAug 1, 2023
Colton McKivitz to be 1st on the depth chart
“We will see how much of a downgrade it is going from McGlinchey to Colton McKivitz opposite the incredible Trent Williams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 66.67+66.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
SF
skill:
66.67
player:
Colton McKivitz
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
66.67
position:
T
naive slot:
5
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
special-teams snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Juice Scruggs Houston TexansAug 1, 2023
Juice Scruggs to be 1st on the depth chart
“rookie second-round center Juice Scruggs will be counted next to last year's first-rounder, Kenyon Green”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
HOU
skill:
-16.67
player:
Juice Scruggs
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
C
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Broderick Jones Pittsburgh SteelersAug 1, 2023
Broderick Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“the addition of Seumalo and rookie left tackle Broderick Jones”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
PIT
skill:
-16.67
player:
Broderick Jones
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
T
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Jawaan Taylor Kansas City ChiefsAug 1, 2023
Jawaan Taylor to be 1st on the depth chart
“right tackle Jawaan Taylor should be an upgrade over Andrew Wylie”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
0
player:
Jawaan Taylor
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
T
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Jonah Williams Cincinnati BengalsAug 1, 2023
Jonah Williams to be 1st on the depth chart
“the question is how well will former left tackle Jonah Williams fare on the right side?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAR
skill:
0
player:
Jonah Williams
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
DE
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
defensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls John Michael Schmitz New York GiantsAug 1, 2023
John Michael Schmitz to be 1st on the depth chart
“Rookie John Michael Schmitz should be an upgrade at center”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
16.67
player:
John Michael Schmitz
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
C
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Jamaree Salyer Los Angeles ChargersAug 1, 2023
Jamaree Salyer to be 1st on the depth chart
“Getting Rashawn Slater back at left tackle allows them to move Jamaree Salyer inside.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 83.33+33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAC
skill:
33.33
player:
Jamaree Salyer
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
83.33
position:
G
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Cam Jurgens Philadelphia EaglesAug 1, 2023
Cam Jurgens to be 1st on the depth chart
“presumptive starter Cam Jurgens has only ever played center before, so that is something to watch”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
PHI
skill:
-16.67
player:
Cam Jurgens
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
G
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Donovan Smith Kansas City ChiefsAug 1, 2023
Donovan Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
“The real question will be how much of a drop-off they see at left tackle from Orlando Brown Jr. to Donovan Smith.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
0
player:
Donovan Smith
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
T
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Position Group RankingsAug 1, 2023
“I broke down all 32 offensive lines into five different categories... 1. Philadelphia Eagles ... 32. Tennessee Titans”
Close · 59Scored 59.24a naive guess scored 75.38-32.29 skill
How this was scored
best:
BUF
unit:
offensive_line
skill:
-32.29
method:
spearman
season:
2023
accuracy:
59.24
baseline:
75.38
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
32
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Bryce Young Carolina PanthersAug 1, 2023
Bryce Young to be 1st on the depth chart
“as it protects rookie starting quarterback Bryce Young”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CAR
skill:
16.67
player:
Bryce Young
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Halapoulivaati Vaitai Detroit LionsAug 1, 2023
Halapoulivaati Vaitai to be 1st on the depth chart
“Getting Halapoulivaati Vaitai back at right guard between studs Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell should help this unit be even better.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Riley Reiff New England PatriotsAug 1, 2023
Riley Reiff to be 1st on the depth chart
“The hope this year is that the Patriots can get good enough play out of Riley Reiff at right tackle”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More depth chart calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.

Their call against what happened

Who this take is about

18 checkable claims in this take

What others said about the same people

More depth chart calls

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