David Harrison· Feb 16, 2026
In a mock draft for the Washington Commanders, Harrison trades pick No. 7 to the Jets for picks 16 and 33 and then projects seven specific selections: Peter Woods at 16, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren at 33, Keelan Rutledge in the third, Max Llewellyn in the fifth, Tanner Koziol at 186, Robert Spears-Jennings at 197 and James Thompson Jr. at 223.
“And at number 16, we went with interior defensive lineman, Peter Woods, out of Clemson”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 26.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickthird round (picks 65–100)They said
26What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Keylan Rutledge to be picked “third round” (picks 65–100)
“And then the third round to wrap up the first two days of the NFL draft, we're going with offensive lineman, Keelan Rutledge out of Georgia Tech.”
Miss · 18Scored 18.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Keylan Rutledge
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 18.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 18.46
- predicted pick:
- third round (picks 65–100)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Max Llewellyn to be picked “fifth round pick” (picks 141–181)
“fifth round pick. Max Llewellyn, Ed Rusher out of Iowa.”
Miss · 8Scored 8.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Max Llewellyn
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 8.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 238
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 8.46
- predicted pick:
- fifth round pick (picks 141–181)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksPeter WoodsWashington CommandersFeb 16, 2026
Peter Woods to be picked at number 16
“And at number 16, we went with interior defensive lineman, Peter Woods, out of Clemson, six foot three, three hundred fifteen pound, type of guy.”
Close · 57Scored 56.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Peter Woods
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 56.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 29
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 56.94
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Robert Spears-Jennings to be picked at number 197
“And then number one ninety seven, again, in the sixth round, going back to the secondary ... Robert Spears Jennings out of Oklahoma.”
Miss · 31Scored 31.05 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Robert Spears-Jennings
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 31.05
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 224
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 31.05
- predicted pick:
- 197
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 33
“Come back in the second round pick number 33... Emmanuel McNeil Warren, safety added Toledo”
Miss · 34Scored 33.86 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 33.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 58
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 33.86
- predicted pick:
- 33
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
James Thompson to be picked at number 223
“Number two twenty three in the seventh round, wrapping up our mock draft. Defensive lineman, James Thompson Junior”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- James Thompson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with SF
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 223
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Tanner Koziol to be picked at number 186
“Pick number one eighty six. ... We're going with Tanner Cozy, old tight end out of Houston.”
Miss · 39Scored 38.56 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Tanner Koziol
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 38.56
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 164
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 38.56
- predicted pick:
- 186
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
What others said about the same people
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Max LlewellynMiss · 0Poupart's third 53-man roster projection of 2026 for the Dolphins names which players make the roster and which are cut at each position group.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Philip HughesRoster Spot Calls · Terry McLaurinHit · 100Hughes surveys Washington's remaining roster questions, asserting that Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are locks for the 53-man roster and that Antonio Williams has essentially secured a spot as the third receiver, while Percy Butler's standing improved after safety cuts.
- Brian PeacockRoster Spot Calls · James ThompsonMiss · 0Peacock lays out his projected 53-man roster for the 49ers, position by position: three specialists, three quarterbacks (including Curtis Rourke), five running backs, six receivers (cutting Christian Kirk), three tight ends (cutting Braden Willis), nine offensive linemen, ten defensive linemen (with Mykel Williams on PUP), five linebackers, six cornerbacks and four safeties. He also predicts a new player will take center snaps in preseason week three.
- Parker HurleyRoster Spot Calls · James ThompsonMiss · 0Hurley projects the San Francisco 49ers' 17-man practice squad, naming specific players at each position he expects to land on it (with a few either/or spots).
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.