Gregg Rosenthal· Sep 3, 2025
Rosenthal picked the Ravens to beat the Lions in the Super Bowl, took the Broncos as his Week 1 survivor pick, liked the Dolphins, Seahawks and Jaguars in their openers, called Jacksonville a sneaky playoff team, and laid out several depth-chart expectations.
“But I have the Ravens winning over the Lions in the Super Bowl this year.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
12 checkable claims — 4 depth chart calls, 4 game outcome picks, 2 conference champions, 1 super bowl pick and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
11 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 47.7 out of 100, against 59.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsBaltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“I have the Ravens winning over the Lions in the Super Bowl this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 3, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to beat San Francisco forty nine Ers
“I picked the Seahawks in this game. I don't I don't feel great about it, but you had to.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 17-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Conference ChampionsDetroit LionsSep 3, 2025
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
“I have the Ravens winning over the Lions in the Super Bowl this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
Dont'e Thornton Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
“you mentioned Dante Thornton, this this rookie who I think is still going to start”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Dont'e Thornton Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Austin Ekeler to be 1st on the depth chart
“Whenever you know Austin Eckler, I would guess we'll have the most snaps of any of them.”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- WAS
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Austin Ekeler
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Luther Burden III to be 4th on the depth chart
“and Luther Burden, who looks pretty interesting, is like the number four”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 100-33.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CHI
- skill:
- -33.33
- player:
- Luther Burden III
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksMiami DolphinsSep 3, 2025
Miami Dolphins to beat Colts
“I like the Dolphins in this game in general ... I mean, I'm picking them, but you guys, why are you taking such big risks?”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 8-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Adam Thielen to be 2nd on the depth chart
“You have to bring an Adam Thelen to be your number two, granted only for like three weeks.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Adam Thielen
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 3, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Carolina Panthers
“I really like the Jaguars, and this is what I'm looking at here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-26
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 3, 2025
Denver Broncos to beat Tennessee Titans
“So I'm gonna enjoy watching those great highlights in a totally one sided game. And that's why I'm taking the Broncos as my survivor.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 12-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Super Bowl PicksBaltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl
“I too have the Baltimore Ravens winning the Super Bowl ... I have the Ravens winning over the Lions in the Super Bowl this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsJacksonville JaguarsSep 3, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat expectations
“I think the Jaguars could be a sneaky playoff team.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Garrett PodellTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100A CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100In a quarterback rapid-fire segment and later discussion, Brooks named starters for several clubs (Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland, Tua in Atlanta, Jeremiah Love as Arizona's starting running back), called Chris Olave a No. 1 receiver, backed Stefon Diggs landing with the Commanders and Aaron Donald returning to the Rams, argued Baker Mayfield belongs among the top 15-17 quarterbacks, and published a top-five defensive tackle list topped by Jeffrey Simmons.
- Joe MarinoTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100Marino projects DJ Moore to bounce back in Buffalo's offense with over 1,000 receiving yards (talking up around 1,200), and expects rookie cornerback Davison Igbinosun (IGB) to win a starting job opposite Christian Benford. He also thinks free agent Stefon Diggs ends up signing with Washington.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
- Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
- Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.