Dan Graziano· Feb 25, 2026
Graziano expects Kyler Murray to be released by the Cardinals by the third day of the league year if no trade materializes, believes the Colts will keep Daniel Jones (via a tag if necessary), thinks Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh is a strong possibility, and expects Cincinnati and Trey Hendrickson to part ways.
“But if they can't, I think the odds are that he gets released by that third day of the league year.”
said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 4 trade and signing calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals
“But if they can't, I think the odds are that he gets released by that third day of the league year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kyler Murray
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- ARI
- was with:
- ARI
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- ARI
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Daniel Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts
“The Colts believe they'll have Daniel Jones back whether it's on a long term deal or whether they use a transition tag or a franchise tag to hold him in place... I would anticipate the Colts... would use one of the tags to hold him in place”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- IND
- was with:
- NYG/MIN
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- IND
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“So it sounds like Aaron Rogers going back there is a strong possibility.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Aaron Rodgers
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- PIT
- was with:
- NYJ
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- PIT
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Trade and Signing CallsTrey HendricksonFeb 25, 2026
Trey Hendrickson to move
“So I I think in the end, it's likely that they part ways”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to open the season as Minnesota's starting quarterback and to be one of the better quarterback values in 2026 fantasy drafts, and he likewise likes Tyler Shough as New Orleans' entrenched starter with an easy schedule.
- Noah ComptonDepth Chart Calls · C.J. AllenMiss · 0After watching the Colts' eleventh training camp practice, Compton says rookie linebacker CJ Allen is still expected to start the regular-season opener, identifies Alec Pierce as the team's top receiver and Cam Taylor-Britt as the first cornerback behind the starting trio, and declares the kicking job Blake Grupe's to lose.
- Matt OkadaDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100In a PPR-framed fantasy draft guide, Okada makes a few non-fantasy claims: rookie Jeremiyah Love will be Arizona's featured back despite being listed as RB2, Tua Tagovailoa will be Atlanta's Week 1 starter, and Kyler Murray will open the season as Minnesota's starting quarterback.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Garrett PodellTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports report frames Stefon Diggs as filling Washington's vacant No. 2 receiver role opposite Terry McLaurin after his reported one-year deal, expecting him in that spot in the 2026 passing game with Jayden Daniels.