Chris Brockman· Sep 7, 2026
Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
“Fernando Mendoza is gonna play. He's gonna lead the Raiders in passing, and he's gonna be an offensive rookie of the year finalist.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
14 checkable claims — 3 award picks, 3 division winners, 2 player season numbers, 2 season win totals, 1 playoff pick, 1 seeding, byes and home field, 1 super bowl pick and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 14 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 3 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room on every one.
Where this call stands in the room
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 2026 season · wins8 calls from 5 pundits between 2 wins and 12 wins. Chris Brockman said 12 wins. the room's median is 9 wins. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
14 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Baker Mayfield to move to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“Baker Mayfield's gonna be a $60,000,000 a year quarter.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- TB
- was with:
- TB
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- TB
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldHouston TexansSep 7, 2026
Houston Texans to take the top seed
“The Texans are gonna regret not giving CJ Stroud an extension before he leads Houston to the AFC one seed this year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“Once Baker wins the NFC south this year”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersPittsburgh SteelersSep 7, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division
“Steelers eleven and six win the North home game.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Baker Mayfield to win MVP finalist
“Baker MVP finalist that doesn't get 60?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Super Bowl PicksDallas CowboysSep 7, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl
“Dak is gonna put up numbers these guys could only dream of... Numbers, then he's gonna win the big one.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensSep 7, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“And so the fact that Minter can come in and start winning football games and a division Right away. Immediately. And and and take them to at least the second round of the playoffs.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jonathan Taylor to record 2,000 rushing yards
“I think Jonathan Taylor could is gonna do it. That's a different story. I think he's gonna get to that.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 12 wins
“12 and 5. Yeah. NFC championship.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“12 and 5. Yeah. NFC championship.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Aaron Rodgers to record 35 passing tds
“Having the time of his life. Throwing touchdowns. 35 plus touchdowns.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Award PicksDak PrescottDallas CowboysSep 7, 2026
Dak Prescott to win MVP
“I think Dax is gonna be a regular season MVP this year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Award PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas RaidersSep 7, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to win Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist
“But Fernando Mendoza is gonna play. He's gonna lead the Raiders in passing, and he's gonna be an offensive rookie of the year finalist.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersSep 7, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 11 wins
“Steelers eleven and six win the North home game.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Noah ComptonDepth Chart Calls · C.J. AllenMiss · 0After watching the Colts' eleventh training camp practice, Compton says rookie linebacker CJ Allen is still expected to start the regular-season opener, identifies Alec Pierce as the team's top receiver and Cam Taylor-Britt as the first cornerback behind the starting trio, and declares the kicking job Blake Grupe's to lose.
- Mason CameronDepth Chart Calls · Ethan PocicMiss · 0An unsigned PFF piece ranks the NFL's top 32 centers heading into the 2026 season, with Creed Humphrey first for the fourth straight year, and names Ethan Pocic and Austin Schlottmann as the favorites to win starting center jobs in Baltimore and Tennessee.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen called the 49ers-as-NFC-favorites take an overreaction, picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win their division, leaned Ravens over the Steelers in the Week 18 Sunday night game, expects the Bills to beat the Jets even without Josh Allen, sees the Chargers as the AFC's seventh seed, agreed Tyler Shough could win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a good Saints 2026, said Malik Willis will be a starter somewhere next season, and insisted Detroit goes into 2026 with Goff.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · New England PatriotsHit · 100Eisen said the Patriots are still likely to win the AFC East and won't be one-and-done, that the Chargers will end Dallas' season next week, that TreVeyon Henderson should out-snap Rhamondre Stevenson, that the NFC East race is over in Philadelphia's favor, and that the winner of the NFC West will be the NFC's No. 1 seed.