David Harrison· Feb 8, 2026
In his first mock draft of the offseason (built on two hypothetical trades), Harrison has Washington selecting Caleb Banks at No. 16, Brandon Cisse at No. 33, Tanner Koziol at No. 145 and Kaylon Black at No. 223, with Banks immediately becoming the team's top defensive tackle. He also expects Washington to move on from Marshawn Lattimore and to bring back Chris Rodriguez Jr., and says his money on the Super Bowl was on Seattle.
“Pick number 16, we're taking Caleb Banks, defensive lineman, out of Florida, number 33. We're taking Brandon Cisse, cornerback, South Carolina.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks, 2 trade and signing calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 56 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Caleb Banks to be picked at number 16
“Pick number 16, we're taking Caleb Banks, defensive lineman, out of Florida”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Caleb Banks
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
Brandon Cisse to be picked at number 33
“number 33. We're taking Brandon Cisse, cornerback, South Carolina.”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Brandon Cisse
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 52
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 33
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
Tanner Koziol to be picked at number 145
“one forty five Tanner Cozio, tight end out of Houston”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Tanner Koziol
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 164
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 145
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
Kaelon Black to be picked at number 223
“Pick number two twenty three. Kaylon Black running back out of Indiana.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.31 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Kaelon Black
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.31
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 90
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.31
- predicted pick:
- 223
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
- Super Bowl PicksSeattle SeahawksFeb 8, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
“If my, money is good, then it's the Seattle Seahawks. Congrats to the Seahawks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Chris Rodriguez Jr. to move to Washington Commanders
“Chris Rodriguez junior is a restricted free agent. We do expect the commanders to bring him back”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Marshon Lattimore to move to Washington Commanders
“we do expect the Washington commanders to move on from cornerback Marshawn Lattimore”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Caleb Banks to be 1st on the depth chart
“On the depth chart, he immediately steps in, and he is the top defensive tackle on this roster.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Jeremy BrenerRoster Spot Calls · Cooper KuppHit · 100Brener projects Seattle's wide receiver room to include Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, Tory Horton, Jake Bobo and rookie Emmanuel Henderson Jr. on the 53-man roster, leaving Montorie Foster Jr. fighting for a spot despite a strong camp and preseason showing.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Jacob WestendorfRoster Spot Calls · Brandon CisseHit · 100In his final 53-man roster projection for the Packers, Westendorf names every player he expects to make the initial roster, places Luke Musgrave and Micah Parsons on PUP, projects Anthony Campbell as the final cut headed to the practice squad, and sets out several depth-chart calls (Love over Taylor, Jacobs as the bell cow, Franklin/Cooper starting at linebacker, Cox and Dennis-Sutton as the No. 2 edge tandem in Week 1).
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Bill HuberRoster Spot Calls · Brandon CisseHit · 100Ahead of final cuts, Huber assigns Packers players probability tiers for making the 53-man roster, calling 40 players locks and another 12 more likely than not to stick, while projecting Keisean Nixon as a Week 1 starting cornerback, Tyrod Taylor as the backup QB, Skyy Moore as the returner, and Micah Parsons, Luke Musgrave and Jordon Riley opening the season on PUP.
- Philip HughesRoster Spot Calls · Terry McLaurinHit · 100Hughes surveys Washington's remaining roster questions, asserting that Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are locks for the 53-man roster and that Antonio Williams has essentially secured a spot as the third receiver, while Percy Butler's standing improved after safety cuts.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.