Pat Fitzmaurice· Jun 14, 2025
Fitzmorris ranks Chase Brown RB11 and expects him to remain Cincinnati's lead back, is far higher than the projections on Drake May (QB9, 700 rushing yards), and views Bucky Irving as an undervalued second-round pick who keeps the Tampa Bay lead job over Rachaad White.
“I do think Chase Brown is still pretty safely going to be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the league.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 sleeper call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 66 out of 100, against 72.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsBucky IrvingTampa Bay BuccaneersJun 14, 2025
Bucky Irving to outplay his draft cost (more of a third or fourth rounder)
“I thought he was a pretty solid option in the latter part of the second round of twenty twenty five drafts. I know a lot of people think he's more of a third or fourth rounder, and the projection seem to agree”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- more of a third or fourth rounder
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Bucky Irving
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB14
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB36
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Drake Maye to finish top 9 at his position, by fantasy points
“So the projections have Drake May QB twenty in fantasy scoring. That's the scary part. I have May at QB nine”
Close · 42Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 0+83.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 41.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 9
- Depth Chart CallsChase BrownCincinnati BengalsJun 14, 2025
Chase Brown to be 1st on the depth chart
“But I do think Chase Brown is still pretty safely going to be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the league.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesChase BrownCincinnati BengalsJun 14, 2025
Chase Brown to finish top 11 at his position, by fantasy points
“so I've Chased Brown at RB eleven in my rankings”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 12
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 11
Rachaad White to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Rashad was in a pure backup rowl. I don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards Rashad White barring injury”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Rachaad White
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Bucky Irving to be 1st on the depth chart
“Bucky Irving's not going to lose his job back to Rashad White... I don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards Rashad White barring injury”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Bucky Irving
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Drake Maye to record 700 rushing yards
“I think if he makes sixteen starts or seventeen, he is going to go for seven hundred rushing yards. And I feel pretty confident about that.”
Miss · 29Scored 28.57a naive guess scored 25.8+5.54 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 283.05
- skill:
- 5.54
- what happened:
- 450
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 28.57
- baseline:
- 25.8
- predicted:
- 700
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 421
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 145.1
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- David HarrisonRoster Spot Calls · Rachaad WhiteHit · 100Harrison gives his initial 53-man roster projection for the Washington Commanders: three quarterbacks including Ethan Kalyak Manus, three running backs, four tight ends, six receivers (leaving off De'Ami Brown and Jaden Bradley), nine offensive linemen with Matt Goldman at center, and a defense of six linebackers but only four cornerbacks. He also projects Tunstall and Newton going to IR on Monday with De'Ami Brown and Dietrich Wise re-signed, plus a corner-heavy practice squad.
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Christian GonzalezHit · 100Hurwitz says several Patriots starting jobs and roster spots are already settled — Drake Maye at QB with Jared Wilson at center, A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry as pass-catchers, and Christian Gonzalez, Milton Williams and Kevin Byard locked into roster spots. Among camp standouts, he pegs undrafted rookie Cameron Dorner as roughly the eighth receiver on a roster likely keeping seven, and says Channing Canada is a strong practice squad candidate if he doesn't make the 53.
- David HarrisonRoster Spot Calls · Rachaad WhiteHit · 100Harrison projects the Washington Commanders' initial 53-man roster if it had to be set today, naming 26 offensive players, three specialists and 24 defenders, and also assigns depth-chart slots at quarterback, running back, the offensive line, the interior defensive line, and the return/specialist jobs.
- Jay MorrisonRoster Spot Calls · Tanner HudsonMiss · 0Morrison expects the Bengals to promote tight end Tanner Hudson from the practice squad to the active roster to fill the spot opened by Andrei Iosivas going on Injured Reserve.
- Bucky BrooksRoster Spot Calls · Josh JohnsonMiss · 0Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.
- Bradley LockerDepth Chart Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's unsigned adjusted power rankings after Week 1 of the 2026 season place the Bills first, the Rams second and the Dolphins last, with notes on quarterback situations in Seattle, Minnesota and Cleveland.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a Week 1 recap with no named byline, CBS Sports suggested Michael Penix Jr. would take over as Atlanta's Week 2 starter if healthy, called Ashton Jeanty's sophomore breakout imminent, and warned readers not to overlook San Francisco as NFC West winners.