Pat McAfee· Sep 11, 2026
In the show's weekly picks segment Pat took the Steelers at home over Atlanta, the Jaguars over Cleveland, the Raiders over Miami, the Packers at Minnesota and the Cowboys over the Giants.
“I'm on Pittsburgh at home.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Browns at Jaguars 26 calls
- Falcons at Steelers 34 calls
- Packers at Vikings 41 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 34 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 11, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to win
“And I will take the Raiders as well.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 11, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
“Cooper Kush is leading them into Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh favored by five and a half. I'll take Pittsburgh.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 11, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
“I'll take the Jacksonville Jaguars minus eight and a half.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 11, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to win
“Cowboys, Giants, Sunday night football. Cowboys favored by three at MetLife... I will as well.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 11, 2026
Green Bay Packers to win
“I will go with the Green Bay Packers plus one and a half in Minnesota.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Jared DubinDepth Chart Calls · Daniel FaaleleMiss · 0Dubin grades the Faalele trade, predicting Faalele has a decent chance to be Jacksonville's Week 1 starting right guard in competition with Wyatt Milum, and that Evan Neal's odds of making the Giants' 53-man roster improved while Jon Runyan and Francis Mauigoa hold the Giants' starting guard jobs.
- John ShipleyDepth Chart Calls · Patrick MekariMiss · 0Shipley projects second-year cornerback Jabbar Muhammad to make the Jaguars' 53-man roster and describes him as the team's clear No. 5 cornerback, a role that would earn him a game-day jersey. He also identifies Patrick Mekari, Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland as projected Week 1 offensive line starters.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.