Peter Schrager· Mar 4, 2025
Schrager expects the top of the draft to be quarterback-driven, with Cam Ward going first overall and Shedeur Sanders second. He also thinks Sam Darnold returns to Minnesota, Justin Fields starts somewhere (likely staying in Pittsburgh rather than joining the Jets), and the Eagles lose free agents like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat.
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 5 trade and signing calls, 2 mock draft picks and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 50.1 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 4, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 2
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
Miss · 0Scored 0.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.21
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Aaron Rodgers to move to New York Giants
“Rogers to the Giants. I still think it's very possible... I could see Rogers to the Giants, and I could see that happening in both sides being like, let's f the world”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Rodgers
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- NYG
- was with:
- NYJ
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- PIT
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsJustin FieldsMar 4, 2025
Justin Fields to be 1st on the depth chart
“Justin Field is going to be an NFL starter next year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYJ
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Justin Fields
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Mock Draft PicksCam WardMar 4, 2025
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings
“Sam Darnold doesn't get the franchise tag, right, I still think he goes back to Minnesota. That's my big swing here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Justin Fields to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“I think has his choice. He's going to stick in Pittsburgh over going to the Jets and another rebuilding thing.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsMilton WilliamsMar 4, 2025
Milton Williams to move
“we know the Eagles are going to have to say farewell to several top talent. I would imagine guys like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsJosh SweatMar 4, 2025
Josh Sweat to move
“we know the Eagles are going to have to say farewell to several top talent. I would imagine guys like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Trevor RipleyRoster Spot Calls · Dillon BellMiss · 0Ripley expects Max Brosmer to return to the Vikings on the practice squad after being waived, and thinks Dillon Bell may draw waiver interest but is also a practice squad candidate for Minnesota.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenMiss · 18Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 96Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Spencer FanoHit · 84Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Aaron RodgersHit · 100McIntyre liked Cowherd's card, flagged the Jets and Chargers as potential upsets/strong teams, said the Chargers could reach the AFC Championship game, and declared Aaron Rodgers will miss the playoffs this year and retire in the offseason.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandMiss · 0Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Seth WalderTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Walder proposes five trades he believes should happen before Week 1 of the 2026 season: Jessie Bates III to the 49ers, Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Patriots, Keon Coleman to the Colts, Walker Little to the Cardinals, and Kayshon Boutte to the Commanders, where he says Boutte would immediately be Washington's No. 2 receiver.
- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Diante LeeTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100A Ringer post-draft power ranking of all 32 teams for the 2026 season, ranked by how much the writer would trust each team to win the Super Bowl, with Denver picked to win the AFC, Detroit projected among the NFC's four best, and win-total calls on Pittsburgh and Miami.