Peter Schrager
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
Graded calls · 16
“I wouldn't say it's inevitable, but I would say it's very likely that cam Ward will be the first overall pick.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“knowing he was going to be the first quarterback taken, I said, but he's not the best player in this draft”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 24.2+75.8 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 14 at random averages 24.2
- skill:
- 75.8
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 24.2
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“Justin Field is going to be an NFL starter next year.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYJ
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Justin Fields
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shador Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2025; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“Look for him to go in the first round, of course, in April's draft.”
Scored 52.21a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Will Johnson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 52.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 47
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 52.21
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“I think he might go as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten.”
Scored 67.71a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“He is a top five pick and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes even higher than that.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Mason Graham
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top five pick (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“He is my number one wide receiver in this draft.”
Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 13.29+57.42 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 31 at random averages 13.29
- skill:
- 57.42
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 13.29
- position:
- wide receiver
- class size:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“let's get started with the top ten combined prospects going into the combine. It's my list... It's number ten Michigan defensive back Will Johnson... Number nine is tight end Colston Loveland... my number eight prospect is Arizona wide receiver Tatoroa McMillan... cam Ward is my seventh overall prospect... that is Jalen Walker... Mason Graham is the number five prospect... number four... Ashton gent... Number three... Mister Tyler Warren... Number two, I've got... Abdul Carter... I've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect”
Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 50+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 33.33
- placed:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 10
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- CB 2: 100, LB 2: 0, TE 2: 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“cam Ward great prospect. We'll be an NFL starter next year and will be a top five, top ten pick, no doubt.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top five, top ten pick (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“Ashton gent is one of the top running backs in this draft and will obviously be a first round pick”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Gent
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2025; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- a first round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“We'll be an NFL starter next year”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“They will finish one to two in the MVP voting”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“All of these pieces lead up to what I think will be number one and number two in the MVP voting”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- true
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“We are out of the playoffs and our coach is going to win Coach of the Year and might have put together one of the most lackluster performances we've seen in the playoffs in recent times.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Kevin O'Connell
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin Stefanski, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Kevin O'Connell
- correct:
- true
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0