Dan Pizzuta Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

Dan Pizzuta

Every take from Dan Pizzuta, including the ones still waiting →

Is Dan Pizzuta accurate? Across 50 graded calls in 8 articles, Dan Pizzuta scores 75.48% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 31.81, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

75.48%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

31.81

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 8 articles. 1 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

98.41% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Playoff Picks15 graded35.71 accuracy
Division Winners8 graded37.5 accuracy
Mock Draft Picks7 graded73.48 accuracy

Against the grain

Teams and players where Dan Pizzuta keeps landing outside the room: at least twice, their call sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is their standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.

Patrick Mahomes-61
Outside the room in 2 of 3 articles — always lower · when they strayed: 86.9 accuracy (2 settled)
Jayden Daniels-53
Outside the room in 2 of 3 articles — always lower · when they strayed: 77.2 accuracy (2 settled)

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

earliest callscareer avg 62 ┄latest form: 87

Graded calls · 50

7 of 8 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 2.

Pizzuta ranks all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks for Week 13 using a combined skill-set and production grading system, with Lamar Jackson first and Mac Jones last.2 graded calls · Nov 27, 2024
- Aidan O'Connell to be 1st on the depth chart
  “Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone and will be out for the rest of the season, putting Aidan O’Connell back in as the starter.”
  Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skill
  How this was scored
  club:
  LV
  skill:
  0
  player:
  Aidan O'Connell
  season:
  2024
  accuracy:
  91.67
  baseline:
  91.67
  position:
  QB
  naive slot:
  1
  actual slot:

Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round.8 graded calls · Apr 24, 2024

J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board
“A surprise team Trades up for J.J. McCarthy ... other suitors just behind could be more desperate to get ahead of them for the fourth quarterback off the board.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 44.76+25.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
naming one of the 11 at random averages 44.76
skill:
25.96
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2024
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
44.76
position:
quarterback
class size:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
5
predicted order:
4
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Close · 40Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Bo Nix
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
40.26
baseline:
50
actual pick:
12
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
40.26
predicted pick:
early second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15
“Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.”
Close · 40Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jer'Zhan Newton
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
40.26
baseline:
50
actual pick:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
40.26
predicted pick:
15
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Miss · 34Scored 33.86a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Michael Penix Jr.
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
33.86
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
33.86
predicted pick:
early second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)
“the fourth quarterback off the board ... we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board (picks 1–135)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jayden Daniels
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?

Pizzuta offers bold 2022 predictions: Trey Lance finishes top-10 in EPA per dropback, DK Metcalf lands top-10 in receiving yards, the Giants finish with the league's worst record, Maxx Crosby leads the NFL in sacks, Desmond Ridder outplays and starts more games than Kenny Pickett, the Panthers grab a wild card, Justin Herbert wins MVP, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.8 graded calls · Sep 8, 2022

Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
they picked:
PHI
season:
2022
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
champions:
PHI,KC
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
yes
lost the conference final:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“Chiefs win the Super Bowl”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
they picked:
KC
season:
2022
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
champion:
KC
runner up:
PHI
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Trey Lance to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“Trey Lance Finishes as a Top 10 QB ... we'll call it top-10 in EPA per dropback”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Trey Lance
season:
2022
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
45
actual finish:
63
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
10
Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs
“The Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs ... this team could sneak a wild card berth in a weaker NFC.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
CAR
skill:
-200
season:
2022
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Desmond Ridder to be 1st on the depth chart
“Desmond Ridder outplays and outstarts Kenny Pickett ... The Falcons are going to be a much worse team overall, which would give a clearer path for Ridder starts.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
ATL
skill:
-16.67
player:
Desmond Ridder
season:
2022
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
DK Metcalf to finish top 10 at his position, by receiving yards
“DK Metcalf Finishes In the Top 10 For Receiving Yards”
Close · 58Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 16.67+83.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
83.33
player:
DK Metcalf
season:
2022
zero at:
12
accuracy:
58.33
baseline:
16.67
position:
WR
ranked by:
receiving yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
25
actual finish:
15
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
10
Justin Herbert to win MVP
“Justin Herbert wins MVP”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Justin Herbert
season:
2022
winner:
Patrick Mahomes
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Maxx Crosby to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks
“Maxx Crosby leads the league in sacks”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 0+150 skill
How this was scored
skill:
150
player:
Maxx Crosby
season:
2022
zero at:
12
accuracy:
75
baseline:
0
position:
defensive line
ranked by:
sacks
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
19
actual finish:
4
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this grade is wrong?