Dan Pizzuta· Sep 8, 2022
Pizzuta offers bold 2022 predictions: Trey Lance finishes top-10 in EPA per dropback, DK Metcalf lands top-10 in receiving yards, the Giants finish with the league's worst record, Maxx Crosby leads the NFL in sacks, Desmond Ridder outplays and starts more games than Kenny Pickett, the Panthers grab a wild card, Justin Herbert wins MVP, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
“If we add another layer to Andy Reid's involvement, let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Oct 1, 2022) → · live page
9 checkable claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 award pick, 1 conference champion, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 53.1 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesSep 8, 2022
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
Maxx Crosby to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks
“Maxx Crosby leads the league in sacks”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 0+150 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 150
- player:
- Maxx Crosby
- season:
- 2022
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- defensive line
- ranked by:
- sacks
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 19
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
Justin Herbert to win MVP
“Justin Herbert wins MVP”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Desmond Ridder to be 1st on the depth chart
“Desmond Ridder outplays and outstarts Kenny Pickett ... The Falcons are going to be a much worse team overall, which would give a clearer path for Ridder starts.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Desmond Ridder
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
DK Metcalf to finish top 10 at his position, by receiving yards
“DK Metcalf Finishes In the Top 10 For Receiving Yards”
Close · 58Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 16.67+83.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- DK Metcalf
- season:
- 2022
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 16.67
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 25
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
- Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 8, 2022
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“Chiefs win the Super Bowl”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- KC
- runner up:
- PHI
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksCarolina PanthersSep 8, 2022
Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs
“The Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs ... this team could sneak a wild card berth in a weaker NFC.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesTrey LanceSep 8, 2022
Trey Lance to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“Trey Lance Finishes as a Top 10 QB ... we'll call it top-10 in EPA per dropback”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Trey Lance
- season:
- 2022
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 45
- actual finish:
- 63
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
- Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsSep 8, 2022
New York Giants to finish with ? wins
“The New York Giants will finish with the worst record”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Ralph VacchianoDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta.
- Steven RuizDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0The unsigned Pick Six newsletter expects Seth McLaughlin to step into the Lions' starting center job with Cade Mays injured, and suggests Tua Tagovailoa is on track to be Atlanta's Week 1 starting quarterback.
- Jeff KerrDepth Chart Calls · Michael CarterMiss · 0Kerr says several Eagles have raised their stock in camp: Darius Cooper is emerging as the team's WR4, Drew Kendall is the No. 3 interior lineman/top backup at guard and center, Willie Lampkin is in prime position to make the 53-man roster, and Michael Carter is a roster lock who could start at safety in Week 1.
- Matt OkadaDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0In a PPR-framed fantasy draft guide, Okada makes a few non-fantasy claims: rookie Jeremiyah Love will be Arizona's featured back despite being listed as RB2, Tua Tagovailoa will be Atlanta's Week 1 starter, and Kyler Murray will open the season as Minnesota's starting quarterback.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Josh AllenMiss · 17Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · George PickensHit · 100Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said he doesn't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonPositional Finishes · Christian GonzalezMiss · 0Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. He also reminds listeners he called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · Puka NacuaHit · 92Eisen defended his preseason call of the Packers reaching the Super Bowl, said the Chiefs will win the AFC West, called the Ravens the favorites in the AFC North, said the Colts are a playoff team, expected Denver to handle Cincinnati and the Giants to beat the winless Saints, and endorsed Puka Nacua as the league's best receiver.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Puka NacuaHit · 92Brockman claimed the AFC North would send only the Steelers to the playoffs, that the Chiefs will win the AFC West, that Puka Nacua is the NFL's best wide receiver, and that the Jaguars are a top-eight team; he also had a preseason prophecy of the Ravens reaching the Super Bowl.