Dan Pizzuta · Sep 8, 2022

Pizzuta offers bold 2022 predictions: Trey Lance finishes top-10 in EPA per dropback, DK Metcalf lands top-10 in receiving yards, the Giants finish with the league's worst record, Maxx Crosby leads the NFL in sacks, Desmond Ridder outplays and starts more games than Kenny Pickett, the Panthers grab a wild card, Justin Herbert wins MVP, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

“If we add another layer to Andy Reid's involvement, let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”

published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original →

9 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Positional FinishesSep 8, 2022
“Maxx Crosby leads the league in sacks”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Maxx Crosby
season:
2022
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
DE
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
72
actual finish:
54
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
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Depth Chart CallsSep 8, 2022
“Desmond Ridder outplays and outstarts Kenny Pickett ... The Falcons are going to be a much worse team overall, which would give a clearer path for Ridder starts.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
ATL
skill:
-16.67
player:
Desmond Ridder
season:
2022
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
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Positional FinishesSep 8, 2022
“Trey Lance Finishes as a Top 10 QB ... we'll call it top-10 in EPA per dropback”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Trey Lance
season:
2022
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
39
actual finish:
62
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
10
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesSep 8, 2022
“DK Metcalf Finishes In the Top 10 For Receiving Yards”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
DK Metcalf
season:
2022
zero at:
12
accuracy:
25
baseline:
25
position:
WR
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
10
actual finish:
19
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
10
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl PicksSep 8, 2022
“Chiefs win the Super Bowl”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
they picked:
KC
season:
2022
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
champion:
KC
runner up:
PHI
naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
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Playoff PicksSep 8, 2022
“The Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs ... this team could sneak a wild card berth in a weaker NFC.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
CAR
skill:
-200
season:
2022
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
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Award PicksSep 8, 2022
“Justin Herbert wins MVP”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Season Win TotalsSep 8, 2022
“The New York Giants will finish with the worst record”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Conference ChampionsSep 8, 2022
“let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?