Dan Pizzuta· Sep 4, 2024
Pizzuta ranks all 32 starting NFL quarterbacks entering Week 1 of the 2024 season, with Patrick Mahomes first and rookie Bo Nix last.
“Patrick Mahomes makes everything easier for his offense.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 4, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
2 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 78.3 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Jacoby Brissett to be 1st on the depth chart
“Right now, Jacoby Brissett is ranked, and Drake Maye is not. ... That's what the Patriots are hoping for until Drake Maye is ready to take over. ... he's a perfect bridge quarterback for the early part of the year.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Jacoby Brissett
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Top Player ListsSep 4, 2024
“NFL Week 1 QB Rankings — 1. Patrick Mahomes ... 32. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos”
Close · 65Scored 64.92a naive guess scored 50+29.84 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 29.84
- placed:
- 32
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.92
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 32: 64.92
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Julian EdelmanScore Predictions · New England PatriotsClose · 48Edelman picked the Patriots to win the season opener in Seattle, saying New England's offseason additions and the bad taste from the previous season would carry them, and gave a final score of 28-24.
- Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Boston Connor took the Patriots in the season opener against Seattle, framing it as a redemption spot after the Super Bowl loss.
- Darius ButlerGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Butler initially picked Seattle but switched to the Patriots before the show ended; he also called the Colts a likely No. 1 seed, said Jacksonville sneaks into the playoffs, and expects Sam Darnold to land a new contract.
- Jason McIntyreGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0McIntyre takes the Patriots on the moneyline in the season opener at Seattle, picks the Jaguars over the Browns, and says Baker Mayfield's new deal keeps Tampa a perennial playoff team.
- Mike FlorioScore Predictions · New England PatriotsClose · 50Florio gives score predictions for every Week 1 game of the 2026 NFL season, including an opening-night upset by the Patriots in Seattle and narrow home wins for the Giants and Chiefs.
- Conor OrrGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Orr's Week 1 straight-up picks, including several upsets (Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos).
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Ralph VacchianoDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Steven RuizDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier.
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.