Dan Pizzuta · Apr 24, 2024

Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round.

“Only four quarterbacks go in the first round”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived May 30, 2024) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

8 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Position Order CallsApr 24, 2024
“A surprise team Trades up for J.J. McCarthy ... other suitors just behind could be more desperate to get ahead of them for the fourth quarterback off the board.”
Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 44.76+25.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
naming one of the 11 at random averages 44.76
skill:
25.96
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2024
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
44.76
position:
quarterback
class size:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
5
predicted order:
4
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksApr 24, 2024
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksApr 24, 2024
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jayden Daniels
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksApr 24, 2024
“the fourth quarterback off the board ... we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksApr 24, 2024
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Scored 33.86a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Michael Penix Jr.
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
33.86
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
33.86
predicted pick:
early second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksApr 24, 2024
“Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.”
Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jer'Zhan Newton
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
40.26
baseline:
50
actual pick:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
40.26
predicted pick:
15
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksApr 24, 2024
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2024
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Bo Nix
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
40.26
baseline:
50
actual pick:
12
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
40.26
predicted pick:
early second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksApr 24, 2024
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?