Dan Pizzuta· Apr 24, 2024
Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round.
“Only four quarterbacks go in the first round”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived May 30, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
8 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 49.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksJ.J. McCarthyApr 24, 2024
J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)
“the fourth quarterback off the board ... we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board (picks 1–135)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksMichael Penix Jr.Apr 24, 2024
Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Miss · 34Scored 33.86a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 33.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 33.86
- predicted pick:
- early second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJayden DanielsApr 24, 2024
Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jayden Daniels
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksDrake MayeApr 24, 2024
Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb WilliamsApr 24, 2024
Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsJ.J. McCarthyApr 24, 2024
J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board
“A surprise team Trades up for J.J. McCarthy ... other suitors just behind could be more desperate to get ahead of them for the fourth quarterback off the board.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 44.76+25.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- naming one of the 11 at random averages 44.76
- skill:
- 25.96
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 44.76
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 5
- predicted order:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksBo NixApr 24, 2024
Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
“Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.”
Close · 40Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- early second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJer'Zhan NewtonApr 24, 2024
Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15
“Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.”
Close · 40Scored 40.26a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jer'Zhan Newton
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Steven RuizDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier.
- Philip HughesRoster Spot Calls · Jayden DanielsHit · 100Hughes projects Washington's initial 53-man roster ahead of the final preseason game, naming every player he expects to make the team by position group, and slots Athan Kaliakmanis as the No. 3 quarterback behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota.
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Drake MayeHit · 100Hurwitz gives his latest 53-man roster projection for the Patriots after the preseason opener, naming who makes the team at each position and slotting rookie Jam Miller as RB3, Karon Prunty as CB4 and Kindle Vildor as CB5.
- Mike HarmonSleeper Calls · Caleb WilliamsHit · 100Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season.
- Adam RankSleeper Calls · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 0Rank recommends JJ McCarthy as a Week 15 quarterback streamer against Dallas and thinks Shedeur Sanders can carry fantasy teams into the semifinals against the Bears. For the Week 15 'perfect lineup' he picks Drake Maye as the top quarterback and Christian McCaffrey as a top running back, and he expects Terry McLaurin to produce with Marcus Mariota starting.
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Caleb WilliamsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rob RangMock Draft Picks · Jeremiah SmithMiss · 0Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · Brandon DoughtyMiss · 3Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable.
- Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks · Gennings DunkerHit · 100Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Eli HeidenreichHit · 100Harrison delivers his only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
- Brian PeacockMock Draft Picks · Bud ClarkHit · 96In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Riley NowakowskiMiss · 13In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round.