Derek Brown Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

Derek Brown

Derek Brown — known around FantasyPros as "DBro" — is a senior fantasy football and NFL analyst for the site, where he writes analysis columns like "The Primer" and co-hosts shows including Sweating Sundays. His work centers on the practical decisions fantasy managers face: rankings, start/sit calls, and detailed player breakdowns. He's also appeared on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. The predictions we've tracked cover the full spectrum of fantasy prep — sleepers and busts, positional finishes, draft rankings, and season stat projections — across teams from the Packers to the Panthers to the Dolphins.

Writes at The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)

Every take from Derek Brown, including the ones still waiting →

Is Derek Brown accurate? Across 114 graded calls in 11 articles, Derek Brown scores 62.71% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 35.62, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.

62.71%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

35.62

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

114

Graded calls

across 11 articles. 522 more not yet settled.

A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Sleeper Calls41 graded52.25 accuracy
Mock Draft Picks21 graded78.04 accuracy
Positional Finishes19 graded12.85 accuracy

Against the grain

Teams and players where Derek Brown keeps landing outside the room: at least twice, their call sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is their standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.

Drake Maye-50
Outside the room in 2 of 5 articles — always lower · when they strayed: 8.3 accuracy (2 settled)

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

Graded calls · 114

3 of 11 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 4.

Brown says Ty Simpson is the clear bust of this quarterback/prospect group while defending Fernando Mendoza as a clean evaluation, and he treats Carnell Tate as a long-established top-ten talent who could even go inside the top five.Apr 8, 2026
- Carnell Tate to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
  “because I'm like, dude, he's always been a top ten pick of we talking about top ten or now top five. I mean, you can make a case for the Giants, you can make a case for the Tennessee Titans to take him at four or five.”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2026
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  player:
  Carnell Tate
  season:
  2026
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:

Derek Brown made picks 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27 and 30 in the 2026 mock, and also called Kenyon Sadiq the clear TE1 of the class, Carnell Tate his runaway WR1 and KC Concepcion a top-three receiver.13 graded calls · Mar 8, 2026

Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 9
“number Nine, Here Kansadity chiefs are on the clock... The Kansas City chiefs Draft Kenyon sadik Tight end out Of oregon”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
16
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
9
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
83.03
Think this grade is wrong?
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 12
“The Dallas cowboys at Twelve... Mancer, delane come on down cornerback out Of lshue”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Mansoor Delane
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
12
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
83.03
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 27
“twenty Seven The san francisco Forty nine Ers And Derek Brown... caden proctor offensive tackle Out of alabama”
Close · 52Scored 52.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Kadyn Proctor
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
52.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
12
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
52.21
predicted pick:
27
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 18
“Eighteen The minnesota vikings... let's give Him safety dylandnaman Out of oregon”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Dillon Thieneman
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
25
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
18
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
83.03
K.C. Concepcion to be picked at number 24
“number twenty four... The Cleveland browns... casey conceptsi one wide receiver Out OF texas A AND M”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
K.C. Concepcion
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
24
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
24
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
83.03
Cashius Howell to be picked at number 15
“The Tampa Bay buccaneers And derek Brown... Casius howel edge out Of TEXAS a AND m”
Miss · 32Scored 32.42 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Cashius Howell
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
32.42
baseline:
50
actual pick:
41
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
32.42
predicted pick:
15
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
83.03
Kenyon Sadiq to be 1st tight end off the board
“he's a three down tight end, easily runaway tight end one of this class”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 15.51+84.49 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 22 at random averages 15.51
skill:
84.49
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
15.51
position:
tight end
class size:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Carnell Tate to be 1st wide receiver off the board
“he's my clear runaway wide receiver one he's in a tier by Himself”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 9.48+90.52 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 9.48
skill:
90.52
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
9.48
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“the number three overall pick that is held... by the Arizona Cardinals... the upside swing here for with Oliver rvil Reese, linebacker out of Ohio State”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Denzel Boston to be picked at number 21
“Twenty one That's The Pittsburgh Steelers... denzel boston wide receiver Out OF washington”
Close · 46Scored 45.85 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Denzel Boston
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
45.85
baseline:
50
actual pick:
39
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
45.85
predicted pick:
21
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
83.03
K.C. Concepcion to be a top three wide receiver in this class wide receiver off the board
“i'm gonna say he's a top three wide receiver in This Class”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 17+53.71 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 17
skill:
53.71
player:
K.C. Concepcion
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
17
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
4
predicted order:
1–3
weeks left when called:
0
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 6
“number six, here The Cleveland browns are up... let's give him for incess mino offensive tackle out Of miami”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Francis Mauigoa
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Anthony Hill to be picked at number 30
“denver broncos one of them at, Number Thirty... anthony hill Linebacker From texas”
Miss · 27Scored 27.26 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.03 against a shuffle’s 50+33.03 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
33.03
player:
Anthony Hill
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
27.26
baseline:
50
actual pick:
60
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
27.26
predicted pick:
30
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
83.03

Brown's mock picks: Carnell Tate to Tennessee at 4, David Bailey to Washington at 7, Mansoor Delane to Cincinnati at 10, Jermod McCoy to the Rams at 13, Caleb Banks to the Jets at 16, Jordan Tyson to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to Chicago at 25, Caleb Lomu to Houston at 28 and Akheem Mesidor to New England at 31.10 graded calls · Feb 20, 2026

Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 31
“I'm going to give them edge, a keen mesador... Mesidor last year fourth and sacks amongst edges”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 82.42 against a shuffle’s 50+32.42 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
32.42
player:
Akheem Mesidor
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
67.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
67.71
predicted pick:
31
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
82.42
Think this grade is wrong?
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 22
“Gotta go trenches here. Manvega ione guard out of Penn State.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 66.07 against a shuffle’s 50+16.07 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
16.07
player:
Olaivavega Ioane
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
70.71
predicted pick:
22
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
66.07
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 4
“let's talk about the wide receiver from Ohio State University that you put on the Titans carnal tape, Baby my wide receiver one”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 66.07 against a shuffle’s 50+16.07 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
16.07
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 25
“Let's give him a safety. Emmanuel McNeil Warren nine pass breakups over the last two years.”
Miss · 24Scored 23.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 66.07 against a shuffle’s 50+16.07 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
16.07
player:
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
23.94
baseline:
50
actual pick:
58
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
23.94
predicted pick:
25
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Caleb Banks to be picked at number 16
“I'm gonna get him, defensive tackle Caleb Banks out of Florida.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 66.07 against a shuffle’s 50+16.07 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
16.07
player:
Caleb Banks
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
18
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
16
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
66.07
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 19
“let's get him Jordan Tyson here and make up from that wide receiver out of Asu”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 66.07 against a shuffle’s 50+16.07 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
16.07
player:
Jordyn Tyson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
62.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
62.09
predicted pick:
19
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
66.07
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 10
“Man's are delaying, baby, come on down. They have corner need... give DJ Turner a running mate”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 77.38 against a shuffle’s 50+27.38 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
27.38
player:
Mansoor Delane
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
10
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
77.38
Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 13
“I'm gonna take Jermalbroog, Jermaud McCoy corner out of Tennessee”
Miss · 2Scored 2.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 66.07 against a shuffle’s 50+16.07 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
16.07
player:
Jermod McCoy
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
2.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
101
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
2.21
predicted pick:
13
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
66.07
David Bailey to be picked at number 7
“Give them David Bailey Edge out of Texas Tech.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 82.42 against a shuffle’s 50+32.42 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
32.42
player:
David Bailey
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
80.52
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
80.52
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
82.42
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 28
“Caleb Blowmou, come on down, offensive tackle out of Utah.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 66.07 against a shuffle’s 50+16.07 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
16.07
player:
Caleb Lomu
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
28
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
28
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
66.07