Jake Ciely

71.62%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

16.94

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 4 articles. 16 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Depth Chart Calls8 graded92.71 accuracy
Positional Finishes7 graded56.48 accuracy

Graded calls · 19

On the FantasyPros waiver wire show, Sealy said Romeo Dobbs is locked in as Green Bay's No. 2 receiver with Jayden Reed out and is a worthwhile free add, that Troy Franklin has passed Marvin Mims to become Denver's No. 2 receiver behind Sutton and deserves a big waiver bid, that Blake Corum is clearly the Rams' backup to Kyren Williams (a top-five handcuff), and that Cedric Tillman and Ayomanor should both be picked up, along with a cheap flyer on Chris Rodriguez.Sep 15, 2025
“the one and two one answer was clear Dobbs, and now we have the elimination of read on top of it, so I think it just makes it even clear”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
GB
skill:
0
player:
Romeo Doubs
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
1.94
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
17
Think this grade is wrong?
On the FantasyPros waiver wire show, Sealy said Romeo Dobbs is locked in as Green Bay's No. 2 receiver with Jayden Reed out and is a worthwhile free add, that Troy Franklin has passed Marvin Mims to become Denver's No. 2 receiver behind Sutton and deserves a big waiver bid, that Blake Corum is clearly the Rams' backup to Kyren Williams (a top-five handcuff), and that Cedric Tillman and Ayomanor should both be picked up, along with a cheap flyer on Chris Rodriguez.Sep 15, 2025
“he's running as the one and the week one. Usage was very good too.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CLE
skill:
0
player:
Cedric Tillman
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1.94
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
17
Think this grade is wrong?
On the FantasyPros waiver wire show, Sealy said Romeo Dobbs is locked in as Green Bay's No. 2 receiver with Jayden Reed out and is a worthwhile free add, that Troy Franklin has passed Marvin Mims to become Denver's No. 2 receiver behind Sutton and deserves a big waiver bid, that Blake Corum is clearly the Rams' backup to Kyren Williams (a top-five handcuff), and that Cedric Tillman and Ayomanor should both be picked up, along with a cheap flyer on Chris Rodriguez.Sep 15, 2025
“He is clearly, by far way ahead of Mims. He is the one and the two with Sutton.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+48.5 skill
How this was scored
club:
DEN
skill:
48.5
player:
Troy Franklin
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
position:
WR
naive slot:
5
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1.94
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
17
Think this grade is wrong?
On the FantasyPros waiver wire show, Sealy said Romeo Dobbs is locked in as Green Bay's No. 2 receiver with Jayden Reed out and is a worthwhile free add, that Troy Franklin has passed Marvin Mims to become Denver's No. 2 receiver behind Sutton and deserves a big waiver bid, that Blake Corum is clearly the Rams' backup to Kyren Williams (a top-five handcuff), and that Cedric Tillman and Ayomanor should both be picked up, along with a cheap flyer on Chris Rodriguez.Sep 15, 2025
“if something happens to Karen Williams, it is one hundred percent clear that Korum's the backup plan, not Darko's hunter”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAR
skill:
0
player:
Blake Corum
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1.94
measured by:
rushing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
17
Think this grade is wrong?
Seeley has dropped Kenneth Walker to RB18 rest-of-season, keeps Breece Hall around RB20 and argues Travis Etienne belongs back in RB2 territory or better, views Egbuka as only a back-end WR2 to sell high on, and thinks Philadelphia matches up too well with Kansas City.Sep 13, 2025
“I just don't know that the Eagles just don't gob smack them again. I just think the Eagles match up too well with the Chiefs... position by a position. I'm just gonna take the Eagles”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skill
How this was scored
won:
PHI
score:
20-17
skill:
194
they picked:
PHI
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this grade is wrong?
Seeley has dropped Kenneth Walker to RB18 rest-of-season, keeps Breece Hall around RB20 and argues Travis Etienne belongs back in RB2 territory or better, views Egbuka as only a back-end WR2 to sell high on, and thinks Philadelphia matches up too well with Kansas City.Sep 13, 2025
“On Kenneth Walker being the bell cow... I moved them all the way down to RB eighteen.”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 33.33+80.83 skill
How this was scored
skill:
80.83
player:
Kenneth Walker III
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
75
baseline:
33.33
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
1.94
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
29
actual finish:
21
weeks left when called:
17
predicted finish:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Seeley has dropped Kenneth Walker to RB18 rest-of-season, keeps Breece Hall around RB20 and argues Travis Etienne belongs back in RB2 territory or better, views Egbuka as only a back-end WR2 to sell high on, and thinks Philadelphia matches up too well with Kansas City.Sep 13, 2025
“So I had whole twenty two preseason, I'd probably move him up two spots... so that would pretty much be like right around twenty”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 100-32.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-32.33
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
100
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
1.94
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
18
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
17
predicted finish:
20
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one”
Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 91.67-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
player:
Bryce Young
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
41.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
20
actual finish:
19
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“Rodriguez is a good talent. I would put him third on this depth chart.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
WAS
skill:
16.67
player:
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
83.33
position:
RB
naive slot:
4
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
3
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“we have one clear option, Matthew Golden is clearly going to be the one”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
GB
skill:
-16.67
player:
Matthew Golden
season:
2025
accuracy:
75
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
4
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“he's clearly been the number two. He's been run out there as the number two... the two that we know right now is actually Marvin Mims”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
DEN
skill:
-16.67
player:
Marvin Mims Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“even if he's just averaging six seven targets per game, for somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be the number two”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CLE
skill:
16.67
player:
Cedric Tillman
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Scored 97.1a naive guess scored 31.73+130.74 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2596.37
skill:
130.74
what happened:
3942
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
97.1
baseline:
31.73
predicted:
4000
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3541
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1651.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“Do you think Craft can rise above that and have this kind of like top five ish tight end season. Speaker 3: I do”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 16.67-33.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-33.33
player:
Tucker Kraft
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
16.67
position:
TE
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
7
actual finish:
17
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
5
Think this grade is wrong?
Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.Aug 23, 2025
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 24.61+110.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
16.82
skill:
110.78
what happened:
27
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
80
baseline:
24.61
predicted:
30
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
20
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this grade is wrong?
Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.Jun 22, 2025
“Justin Fields is going to if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 99.31-198.61 skill
How this was scored
naive:
3.99
skill:
-198.61
what happened:
4
player:
Justin Fields
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
99.31
predicted:
8
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
5
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this grade is wrong?
Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.Jun 22, 2025
“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 0+166.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
166.67
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
0
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
72
actual finish:
2
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
4
Think this grade is wrong?
Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.Jun 22, 2025
“at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
50
baseline:
100
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
18
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
24
Think this grade is wrong?
Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.Jun 22, 2025
“I think that he is more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round, where like a lot of people want to take him”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 25+100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
75
baseline:
25
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
no prior season — the startable tier at RB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
24
actual finish:
15
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this grade is wrong?