Jake Ciely· Jun 22, 2025
Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.
“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 fantasy bust call, 1 player season number and 1 sleeper call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 34.7 out of 100, against 70.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy Bust CallsBreece HallNew York JetsJun 22, 2025
Breece Hall to fall short of his draft cost (RB thirteen)
“But at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- RB thirteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB18
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsBrashard SmithKansas City ChiefsJun 22, 2025
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (a light late round flier)
“that's why bring up Brishard Smith as a light late round flier and a lot of these shows”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- a light late round flier
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Brashard Smith
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB70
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Positional FinishesBreece HallNew York JetsJun 22, 2025
Breece Hall to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
“at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -100
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 18
- actual finish:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 24
Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“I think that he is more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round, where like a lot of people want to take him”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 25+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at RB
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 24
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Christian McCaffrey to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 0+166.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 166.67
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 72
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 4
- Player Season NumbersJustin FieldsNew York JetsJun 22, 2025
Justin Fields to record 8 rushing tds
“Justin Fields is going to if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 99.31-198.61 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 3.99
- skill:
- -198.61
- what happened:
- 4
- player:
- Justin Fields
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 99.31
- predicted:
- 8
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 5
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 2.97
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Mike TannenbaumTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Fernando MendozaHit · 100Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Gregg RosenthalTrade and Signing Calls · Breece HallMiss · 0Rosenthal calls the Chiefs the No. 1 favorite and says they are going to the Super Bowl. He also expects several players to be moved before the trade deadline, most confidently David Njoku, and views Riq Woolen and Breece Hall as likely trade pieces.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rich HribarPositional Finishes · Matthew StaffordHit · 100Hribar published his 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how he prioritizes drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- JP AcostaPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named his own first-team All-Pro roster.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · George PickensHit · 100Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said he doesn't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonPositional Finishes · Christian GonzalezMiss · 0Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. He also reminds listeners he called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.