Jake Ciely · Jun 22, 2025

Jake has Christian McCaffrey as his RB4 and a back-end first-round pick, views Ashton Jeanty as more of a back-end RB1 than a mid-first pick, likes Brashard Smith as a late-round flier, and sees Breece Hall as a bust risk at his RB13 cost, projecting him as a back-end RB2 while expecting Justin Fields to run for around eight touchdowns.

“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

6 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Positional FinishesJun 22, 2025
“at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
50
baseline:
100
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
18
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
24
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesJun 22, 2025
“I think that he is more of a back end RB one for me than mid first round, where like a lot of people want to take him”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 25+100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
75
baseline:
25
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
no prior season — the startable tier at RB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
24
actual finish:
15
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesJun 22, 2025
“I have Christian McCaffrey at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm going to keep him at RB four.”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 0+166.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
166.67
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
0
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
72
actual finish:
2
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
4
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersJun 22, 2025
“Justin Fields is going to if he plays a full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 99.31-198.61 skill
How this was scored
naive:
3.99
skill:
-198.61
what happened:
4
player:
Justin Fields
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
99.31
predicted:
8
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
5
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
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Sleeper CallsJun 22, 2025
“that's why bring up Brishard Smith as a light late round flier and a lot of these shows”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Fantasy Bust CallsJun 22, 2025
“But at RB thirteen, I have him more as a back end RB two just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?