Jake Ciely· Aug 23, 2025

Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.

“We might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

14 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 4 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 14 have settled, averaging 62.7 out of 100, against 58.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

14 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Sleeper Calls Braelon Allen New York JetsAug 23, 2025
Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (those mid rounds)
“So I think there's a lot of appeal for Braylon Allen those mid rounds.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
those mid rounds
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Braelon Allen
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB51
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB94
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Romeo Doubs Chicago BearsAug 23, 2025
Romeo Doubs to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty four)
“This feels like the most lay up of mine. I'm gonna go with Roman Duns... how are you not excited for the number two, who, by the way, has a world where he might be the most valuable Bears wide receiver”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
wide receiver thirty four
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Romeo Doubs
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR57
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR34
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Marvin Mims Jr.Denver BroncosAug 23, 2025
Marvin Mims Jr. to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver fifty eight in ECR)
“It's Marvin Mims... now we're talking about Marvin Mims clearly is the number two and potentially having one hundred plus targets”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
wide receiver fifty eight in ECR
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Marvin Mims Jr.
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR52
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR70
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Ricky Pearsall San Francisco 49ersAug 23, 2025
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver forty two in ADP)
“he took Ricky pearsoll just I mean, I just knew it... to be fair, like I actually had him as my number one... I cannot agree more on Ricky Piersel.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
wide receiver forty two in ADP
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Ricky Pearsall
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR81
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR78
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Cedric Tillman Cleveland BrownsAug 23, 2025
Cedric Tillman to outplay his draft cost (going super late in draft)
“I'm gonna go to Cedric Tillman... for somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be the number two”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
going super late in draft
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Cedric Tillman
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR90
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR98
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Bryce Young Carolina PanthersAug 23, 2025
Bryce Young to outplay his draft cost (he's outside the top twenty)
“My number five. I'll go to quarterback first. I'm gonna go to Bryce Young... we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
he's outside the top twenty
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Bryce Young
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
QB
had to beat:
QB20
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
QB19
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Tucker Kraft Green Bay PackersAug 23, 2025
Tucker Kraft to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
“Do you think Craft can rise above that and have this kind of like top five ish tight end season. Speaker 3: I do”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 16.67-33.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-33.33
player:
Tucker Kraft
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
16.67
position:
TE
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
7
actual finish:
17
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
5
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Caleb Williams Chicago BearsAug 23, 2025
Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 24.61+110.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
16.82
skill:
110.78
what happened:
27
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
80
baseline:
24.61
predicted:
30
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
20
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Caleb Williams Chicago BearsAug 23, 2025
Caleb Williams to record 4,000 passing yards
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Hit · 97Scored 97.1a naive guess scored 31.73+130.74 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2596.37
skill:
130.74
what happened:
3942
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
97.1
baseline:
31.73
predicted:
4000
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3541
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1651.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Bryce Young Carolina PanthersAug 23, 2025
Bryce Young to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one”
Close · 42Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 91.67-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
player:
Bryce Young
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
41.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
20
actual finish:
19
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Cedric Tillman Cleveland BrownsAug 23, 2025
Cedric Tillman to be 2nd on the depth chart
“even if he's just averaging six seven targets per game, for somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be the number two”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CLE
skill:
16.67
player:
Cedric Tillman
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Marvin Mims Jr.Denver BroncosAug 23, 2025
Marvin Mims Jr. to be 2nd on the depth chart
“he's clearly been the number two. He's been run out there as the number two... the two that we know right now is actually Marvin Mims”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
DEN
skill:
-16.67
player:
Marvin Mims Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Chris Rodriguez Jr.Washington CommandersAug 23, 2025
Chris Rodriguez Jr. to be 3rd on the depth chart
“Rodriguez is a good talent. I would put him third on this depth chart.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
WAS
skill:
16.67
player:
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
83.33
position:
RB
naive slot:
4
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
3
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Matthew Golden Green Bay PackersAug 23, 2025
Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart
“we have one clear option, Matthew Golden is clearly going to be the one”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
GB
skill:
-16.67
player:
Matthew Golden
season:
2025
accuracy:
75
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
4
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100
The unsigned recap argues Sanders clearly outplayed Watson and, even if Sanders isn't named the Week 1 starter, predicts both quarterbacks will see significant playing time in 2026.

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Who this take is about

14 checkable claims in this take

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