Jake Ciely · Aug 23, 2025

Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.

“We might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

14 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Positional FinishesAug 23, 2025
“Do you think Craft can rise above that and have this kind of like top five ish tight end season. Speaker 3: I do”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 16.67-33.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-33.33
player:
Tucker Kraft
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
16.67
position:
TE
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
7
actual finish:
17
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
5
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersAug 23, 2025
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 24.61+110.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
16.82
skill:
110.78
what happened:
27
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
80
baseline:
24.61
predicted:
30
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
20
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersAug 23, 2025
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Scored 97.1a naive guess scored 31.73+130.74 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2596.37
skill:
130.74
what happened:
3942
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
97.1
baseline:
31.73
predicted:
4000
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3541
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1651.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesAug 23, 2025
“we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one”
Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 91.67-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
player:
Bryce Young
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
41.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
20
actual finish:
19
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsAug 23, 2025
“even if he's just averaging six seven targets per game, for somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be the number two”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CLE
skill:
16.67
player:
Cedric Tillman
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsAug 23, 2025
“he's clearly been the number two. He's been run out there as the number two... the two that we know right now is actually Marvin Mims”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
DEN
skill:
-16.67
player:
Marvin Mims Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsAug 23, 2025
“Rodriguez is a good talent. I would put him third on this depth chart.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
WAS
skill:
16.67
player:
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
83.33
position:
RB
naive slot:
4
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
3
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsAug 23, 2025
“we have one clear option, Matthew Golden is clearly going to be the one”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
GB
skill:
-16.67
player:
Matthew Golden
season:
2025
accuracy:
75
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
4
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 23, 2025
“So I think there's a lot of appeal for Braylon Allen those mid rounds.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 23, 2025
“I'm gonna go to Cedric Tillman... for somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be the number two”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 23, 2025
“he took Ricky pearsoll just I mean, I just knew it... to be fair, like I actually had him as my number one... I cannot agree more on Ricky Piersel.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 23, 2025
“It's Marvin Mims... now we're talking about Marvin Mims clearly is the number two and potentially having one hundred plus targets”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 23, 2025
“This feels like the most lay up of mine. I'm gonna go with Roman Duns... how are you not excited for the number two, who, by the way, has a world where he might be the most valuable Bears wide receiver”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 23, 2025
“My number five. I'll go to quarterback first. I'm gonna go to Bryce Young... we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?